TD Cowen holds Medpace stock rating, maintains $328 target

Published 22/04/2025, 15:14
TD Cowen holds Medpace stock rating, maintains $328 target

Tuesday, TD Cowen reiterated its Hold rating on Medpace (NASDAQ: MEDP) shares, maintaining the price target at $328.00. The stock, currently trading at $269.90, sits near its 52-week low despite maintaining a "GREAT" financial health score according to InvestingPro metrics. The firm’s analyst highlighted concerns over the current macroeconomic environment, noting that the weaker-than-expected first-quarter Book-to-Bill (B2B) ratio of 0.90x, which fell short of the consensus estimate of 1.02x, signals broader challenges in the biotech Contract Research Organization (CRO) market.

Medpace’s first-quarter bookings were reported at $500 million, missing the consensus estimate of $538 million and representing a roughly 19% year-over-year decline. This comes despite the company’s solid revenue growth of 11.84% over the last twelve months and maintaining healthy profit margins above 67%. TD Cowen anticipates that discussions during the company’s earnings call will delve into the factors contributing to the bookings shortfall, such as potential increases in project cancellations, slower pipeline progression, or delays in clinical trials.

Despite the reasons behind the weaker first-quarter performance, TD Cowen remains cautious about the biotech CRO market’s outlook. The firm suggests that the market is already facing difficulties and could be further impacted by upcoming FDA budget reductions.

Looking ahead, TD Cowen is keen to learn whether Medpace management still envisions reaching a B2B ratio of 1.15x in the second half of 2025. However, given the significant drop in first-quarter bookings, the firm anticipates that management may revise its B2B target for the latter half of the year. According to InvestingPro’s Fair Value analysis, the stock appears slightly undervalued at current levels, with additional insights available in the comprehensive Pro Research Report, which offers deep-dive analysis of this $8.14 billion market cap company.

In other recent news, Medpace Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:MEDP). reported financial results for the first quarter of 2025, surpassing analysts’ expectations. The company achieved an earnings per share (EPS) of $3.67, exceeding the forecast of $3.05, and reported revenue of $558.6 million against an anticipated $527.74 million. Despite these positive results, Medpace’s stock experienced a decline of 5.72% in after-hours trading, reflecting broader market concerns and industry challenges. The company announced guidance for 2025, projecting revenue between $2.140 billion and $2.240 billion, with an expected diluted EPS ranging from $12.26 to $13.04.

Medpace’s focus remains on personalized service and competitive pricing, even as it navigates a challenging biotech funding environment. The company’s CEO, August Trundle, emphasized their resilience, noting a path to improved backlog growth. Analysts from firms such as Jefferies and William Blair raised concerns about funding challenges and project cancellations during the earnings call. Medpace’s management reiterated their commitment to maintaining strong client relationships and navigating industry difficulties. The company also reported a cash balance of $441.4 million and generated $125.8 million in cash flow from operations during the quarter.

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