TD Cowen reiterates Hold rating on McDonald’s stock amid value strategy

Published 03/09/2025, 15:10
TD Cowen reiterates Hold rating on McDonald’s stock amid value strategy

Investing.com - TD Cowen maintained its Hold rating and $330.00 price target on McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD), currently trading at $313.30 and near its 52-week high of $326.32, as the fast-food giant intensifies its focus on value offerings.

The research firm noted that McDonald’s current value strategy may not be the most organic or profitable method to drive traffic, particularly as management downplayed potential benefits to second-half 2025 U.S. same-store sales. According to InvestingPro data, 16 analysts have recently revised their earnings upwards for the upcoming period, and the company maintains a GOOD financial health score.

September is expected to be the peak month for financial impact from the strategy, with a $40 million marketing investment plus peak franchisee subsidies, though these investments are captured within the company’s 2025 G&A and EBIT margin outlook.

TD Cowen expressed surprise that management downplayed the impact on 2H25 U.S. same-store sales, as value perceptions among lower-income consumers and market share are instead viewed as indicators of success for the initiative.

The September $8 Big Mac combo represents a 20%+ price reduction systemwide, and TD Cowen’s proprietary survey data suggests McDonald’s value perceptions are now in-line with quick-service peers after historically exceeding the industry.

In other recent news, McDonald’s has announced the issuance of $1.3 billion in medium-term notes, with $550 million due in 2031 at a 4.400% interest rate and $750 million due in 2036 at a 5.000% interest rate. This financial move comes as the company continues to focus on its value strategy, with multiple analysts reiterating their ratings. Truist Securities has maintained its Buy rating with a price target of $360, expressing confidence in McDonald’s ability to strengthen its market share. Similarly, KeyBanc has reiterated its Overweight rating and $335 price target, highlighting recent value-focused initiatives. Bernstein has kept a Market Perform rating and a $310 price target, noting McDonald’s investment in Extra Value Meals priced 15% lower than individual items. TD Cowen has raised its price target from $315 to $330, citing improved confidence in McDonald’s European operations and revised sales estimates for international markets. These developments reflect McDonald’s ongoing efforts to enhance its market position and financial performance.

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