Telsey cuts Waldencast price target to $5, maintains Outperform

Published 20/03/2025, 12:22
Telsey cuts Waldencast price target to $5, maintains Outperform

Thursday, Telsey Advisory Group adjusted its price target on Waldencast Acquisition Corp. (NASDAQ: WALD) shares, reducing it to $5.00 from the previous $6.00, while keeping an Outperform rating on the stock. Currently trading at $3.20, the stock has experienced a -20.4% return year-to-date. The revision followed Waldencast’s financial performance for the fiscal year 2024, where the company reported a significant beat on the topline, attributed to robust growth from its Obagi and Milk brands. This success was driven by strong innovation and improved product availability.According to InvestingPro analysis, Waldencast currently appears undervalued based on its Fair Value metrics, with analysts setting targets ranging from $4.30 to $7.50.

Despite the positive sales figures, Waldencast’s EBITDA for the quarter fell slightly short of market expectations, primarily due to a softer performance from Milk. The company maintains impressive gross profit margins of 69.71%, demonstrating strong pricing power. The company’s first-quarter revenue forecast indicates flat year-over-year growth, contrasting with prior market consensus of a 22% increase. This conservative outlook is partly due to a tough comparison against the previous year, which saw the successful launch of Milk’s Jellies product and adjustments in retail partner inventory.

For the full fiscal year, Waldencast’s guidance suggests a slight miss against consensus estimates but indicates an acceleration in growth as the year advances. With current revenue of $240.38 million and a healthy current ratio of 1.47, the company maintains strong operational flexibility. This optimism is based on anticipated new product launches and expanded distribution, including Milk’s debut in 600 Ulta locations starting in March. The FY25 adjusted EBITDA margin guidance brackets prior consensus, with potential upside at the higher end of the range.

Telsey’s analysis emphasizes Waldencast’s effective portfolio strategy within the resilient beauty sector, led by experienced industry professionals. The firm highlights Obagi’s potential for growth in the professional skincare market and Milk’s opportunities for distribution and margin expansion, particularly as a clean, prestige makeup brand popular among Gen Z consumers.

The revised $5.00 price target is based on a 12.3x multiple on Telsey’s two-year forward EBITDA estimate of $64.5 million. This is compared to the current next twelve months (NTM) multiple of 11.9x and a historical average of 14.5x. Despite the current macroeconomic uncertainties, Telsey’s stance on Waldencast remains positive, supported by the company’s strong brand positioning and growth prospects.

In other recent news, Waldencast Acquisition Corp reported its fourth-quarter 2024 earnings, revealing a slight miss on earnings per share (EPS) at -$0.06 compared to the expected -$0.0524. However, the company’s revenue for the quarter exceeded forecasts, coming in at $72.08 million against the anticipated $70.77 million. The company’s full-year net revenue showcased a robust 27.5% increase, reaching $273.9 million, and adjusted EBITDA rose by 65.1% to $40.3 million, indicating strong operational efficiency. Waldencast has also secured a new $175 million credit facility to support future growth. DA Davidson maintained its Buy rating for Waldencast, with a price target of $7.50, based on the company’s growth trajectory and profitability outlook. The firm revised its 2025 sales growth estimate for Waldencast to 14% year-over-year, down from the previously anticipated 20%, due to projected flat growth in the first quarter. Additionally, Waldencast announced its expansion into over 600 Ulta Beauty (NASDAQ:ULTA) stores, marking its first venture outside of Sephora in the U.S., as part of its strategy to enhance retail presence. The company anticipates mid-teens net revenue growth and adjusted EBITDA margin expansion into the mid-to-high teens for 2025.

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