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On Friday, TD Cowen adjusted its outlook on TFI International (NYSE:TFII) shares, reducing the price target to $135 from the previous $165, while maintaining a Buy rating on the stock. The stock, currently trading at $98.38, has fallen over 21% in the past week alone. The firm’s analysts pointed to significant operational challenges at TForce Freight, a subsidiary of TFI International, which have prompted a reassessment of the company’s margin expectations for the year 2025. According to InvestingPro data, the stock appears undervalued based on its Fair Value analysis.
According to TD Cowen, TForce Freight is becoming a problematic component for TFI International, as the freight company grapples with a deteriorating claims ratio and increasing customer losses. These issues have led to a downward revision of consensus and TD Cowen’s own earnings estimates for TFI International. InvestingPro analysis reveals that six analysts have recently revised their earnings downwards, with analyst targets now ranging from $105 to $180.
The analysts also noted that TFI International is planning to change its country of domicile to the United States. However, they anticipate that the proposed spin-off of its less-than-truckload (LTL) segment is likely to be delayed due to the size of the business and the current challenges it is facing.
Despite the lowered price target, TD Cowen reaffirmed its positive stance on TFI International’s stock with a Buy rating. The firm’s commentary suggests that while near-term headwinds are evident, the long-term outlook for the company remains favorable in their view. InvestingPro data shows the company maintains a "GOOD" overall financial health score, with strong profitability metrics including a 20.6% gross profit margin. For deeper insights into TFI International’s valuation and prospects, investors can access the comprehensive Pro Research Report, available exclusively to InvestingPro subscribers.
In other recent news, TFI International reported a weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter performance for 2024, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.19, marking a 30% decrease from the previous year. This result fell short of both BofA Securities’ projection of $1.53 and the consensus estimate of $1.58. UBS analysts downgraded TFI International’s stock from "Buy" to "Neutral," reducing the price target to $107.00 due to concerns over the U.S. Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) business margin improvements. Similarly, BofA Securities downgraded the stock from "Neutral" to "Underperform," setting a new price target of $109.00, citing escalating costs and the loss of profitable small- to medium-sized business customers.
Additionally, BofA Securities adjusted their EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026, reflecting a decrease of 12% and 8%, respectively, due to anticipated flat earnings and cost pressures. Despite these challenges, TFI International announced a 13% increase in its quarterly dividend, raising it to $0.45 per share, signaling confidence in its financial stability. The dividend is payable on January 15, 2025, to shareholders on record as of December 31, 2024. These developments highlight a period of financial recalibration for TFI International amidst ongoing operational challenges.
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