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Investing.com - Stifel has maintained its Hold rating and $115.00 price target on TransMedics Group (NASDAQ:TMDX) following the release of September OPTN data. The medical technology company, which has demonstrated robust revenue growth of 48% over the last twelve months and maintains a GREAT financial health score according to InvestingPro, continues to draw analyst attention.
The September data revealed continued US donor organ softness in the third quarter of 2025, with donation after circulatory death (DCD) notably weakening. Stifel believes this donor weakness could be durable, potentially affecting TransMedics’ business outlook.
September transplant volume findings showed mixed results across categories. Donation after brain death (DBD) liver and DCD heart volumes were light, though this was partially offset by relatively solid DCD liver and DBD heart figures.
Stifel estimates TransMedics’ third-quarter revenue could reach between $147 million and $150 million, slightly above the Street’s expectation of $145 million. However, this might imply a second consecutive quarter where sequential US OCS share gains finish below 100 basis points, compared to approximately 200 basis points of average quarterly share increases from the first quarter of 2023 through the first quarter of 2025.
Despite these concerns, Stifel notes that investor expectations appear low, and flight data suggesting revenue slightly above consensus may be enough for the stock to perform well following the earnings report, particularly if the company maintains a steady outlook for the fourth quarter of 2025.
In other recent news, TransMedics Group has received significant attention from multiple analyst firms regarding its stock ratings and future prospects. Jefferies initiated coverage on TransMedics with a Buy rating and a price target of $145, recognizing the company’s pioneering role in organ transplant technology. Similarly, Evercore ISI started coverage with an Outperform rating and a price target of $155, citing growth potential and a market misunderstanding about the company’s service costs. Meanwhile, TD Cowen reaffirmed its Buy rating with a higher price target of $170, emphasizing TransMedics’ strong competitive position in the organ transplant market.
Conversely, Stifel initiated coverage with a Hold rating and a $115 price target, based on mixed survey results from U.S. transplant surgeons regarding the company’s organ care system technology. In a strategic move, TransMedics announced a collaboration with Mercedes-Benz Group AG to establish a dedicated organ transportation network in Italy. This initiative will see the deployment of Mercedes-Benz V-Class vehicles equipped with TransMedics’ Organ Care System technology across four hubs in Milan, Rome, Padua, and Bari. These developments highlight the company’s ongoing efforts to expand its footprint and enhance its service offerings in the organ transplant sector.
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