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On Monday, Truist Securities adjusted its outlook on Graphic Packaging Holding Company (NYSE:GPK), reducing the price target to $30 from the previous $31, while maintaining a Hold rating on the stock. The firm’s analyst noted that despite the potential for near-term market fluctuations, Graphic Packaging is progressing with innovative solutions aimed at meeting the increasing consumer demand for sustainable packaging options. Trading near its 52-week low of $25.12, InvestingPro analysis suggests the stock is currently undervalued, with 5 analysts recently revising their earnings expectations downward.
The decision follows Truist Securities’ analysts’ attendance at Graphic Packaging’s European Packaging (NYSE:PKG) Innovation Field Trip, where they engaged with the company’s top executives. Discussions centered on the driving forces behind the demand for food and beverage packaging. Graphic Packaging highlighted its commitment to developing a systems-based product portfolio, which is designed to cater to the growing need for eco-friendly packaging solutions among customers. The company, with its $7.59 billion market capitalization and $8.81 billion in annual revenue, maintains a strong financial health score according to InvestingPro metrics.
Although Graphic Packaging did not provide an update on its financial guidance, Truist Securities anticipates a possibly weaker first quarter than previously expected. This projection is based on the continued observation of softer Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) volumes. As a result of these factors, Truist Securities has revised its earnings estimates downward. Investors awaiting the company’s next earnings report on April 29, 2025, can access comprehensive analysis and additional insights through InvestingPro’s detailed research reports, which include fair value estimates and growth projections.
The analyst’s commentary provided insight into the rationale behind the price target adjustment: "Near-Term Choppiness Persists; Innovation Momentum; We had the pleasure of attending Graphic Packaging’s European Packaging Innovation Field Trip last week and heard extensively from key executives on demand drivers for food & beverage. The company remains focused on building a systems-based portfolio of products to address growing customer needs for sustainable packaging. While the company did not update guidance, our sense is that 1Q may be weaker than expected due to continued softer CPG volumes. As such, we lower our estimates. Our PT moves to $30 from $31."
Graphic Packaging Holding Company, traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker GPK, is a leader in the design and manufacturing of packaging for commercial products, with a particular emphasis on sustainability and innovation in its offerings.
In other recent news, Graphic Packaging Holding Company reported fourth-quarter earnings and revenue that did not meet analyst expectations. The company posted adjusted earnings per share of $0.46, falling short of the anticipated $0.62, while revenue reached $2.1 billion, below the forecasted $2.16 billion. Despite these results, Graphic Packaging achieved an adjusted EBITDA margin of 19.1% for the full year 2024 and noted a return to positive packaging volume growth in the latter half of the year. For fiscal year 2025, the company projects earnings per share between $2.53 and $2.78, with revenue expected to range from $8.7 billion to $8.9 billion, both slightly below consensus estimates.
Citi analyst Anthony Pettinari recently adjusted the price target for Graphic Packaging, lowering it to $28 from $30 while maintaining a Neutral rating. This adjustment follows the company’s modest fourth-quarter results and 2025 EBITDA guidance, which did not meet consensus expectations. Pettinari revised the 2025 EBITDA forecast to $1.705 billion, a slight increase from the previous year. The analyst highlighted stable price and cost dynamics, with expected capital expenditures for 2025 lower than anticipated at approximately $700 million. Additionally, Graphic Packaging has been active in strategic initiatives, including launching Vision 2030 and executing a Virtual Power Purchase Agreement to boost renewable energy use in Europe.
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