Truist cuts Ryman stock price target to $133, maintains buy rating

On Tuesday, Truist Securities adjusted its outlook on Ryman Hospitality Properties (NYSE:RHP), lowering the price target from $136.00 to $133.00, while still sustaining a Buy rating on the stock. Currently trading at $98.35, RHP maintains a strong Buy consensus among analysts, with targets ranging from $100 to $136. According to InvestingPro data, the stock appears overvalued at current levels. Truist analysts cited changes in their financial forecasts for the company, including a decrease in expected EBITDAre and AFFO per share for the years 2025 and 2026.

In detail, Truist’s 2025 EBITDAre estimate for Ryman Hospitality Properties has been revised to $780 million from the previous $804 million. For context, the company’s current EBITDA stands at $725.64 million, with InvestingPro analysis showing GREAT overall financial health with a score of 3.13 out of 5. Similarly, the anticipated AFFO (Adjusted Funds From Operations) per share has been adjusted to $8.36, down from $8.71. For 2026, the EBITDAre forecast has been updated to $841 million from an earlier projection of $855 million, with AFFO per share anticipated to be $9.51, slightly higher than the former estimate of $9.44.

The new price target of $133 is based on maintaining the same valuation multiples for Ryman’s Hospitality and Entertainment segments. These multiples stand at 13.0x for the Hospitality segment and 16.0x for the Entertainment segment, applied to the firm’s 2026 EBITDA estimate. Truist Securities views these multiples as fitting, given the high quality and unique nature of Ryman’s portfolio, which warrants a slight premium over the REIT peer average valuation of approximately 11.5-12.5x on Hospitality.

Despite the slight reduction in the price target, Truist Securities reaffirms its favorable view of Ryman Hospitality Properties, naming it their preferred pick within the Lodging REIT sector. With a beta of 1.68 and recent price movements showing significant volatility, the analysts at Truist also acknowledge the potential for Ryman’s stock performance to be volatile throughout the year due to significant renovation work planned for the company’s Hospitality portfolio. Discover more insights about RHP and access comprehensive analysis with a InvestingPro subscription, which includes 8 additional ProTips and detailed financial metrics.

In other recent news, Ryman Hospitality Properties reported its fourth-quarter 2024 earnings, revealing an earnings per share (EPS) of $1.13, which did not meet the forecasted $1.21. The company’s revenue reached $647.63 million, falling short of expectations of $659.27 million. Despite these misses, Ryman achieved an 8% increase in full-year revenue and a 10% rise in adjusted EBITDAre, supported by strategic investments and renovations. Analysts noted that the company experienced challenges in leisure demand during late December, which could have impacted the earnings results. Ryman has projected a hospitality RevPAR growth of 2.25% to 4.75% in 2025. The company plans to make significant capital investments between $400 million and $500 million in 2025. Executive Chairman Colin Reed expressed optimism about the company’s future, emphasizing ongoing strategic initiatives and investments.

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