EU and US could reach trade deal this weekend - Reuters
On Wednesday, UBS analyst Thomas Wadewitz revised the price target for CSX Corporation (NASDAQ:CSX) shares, reducing it to $36.00 from the previous $39.00. Despite the price target adjustment, the firm continues to recommend a Buy rating for the stock. Currently trading at $29.49 and near its 52-week low of $28.98, InvestingPro analysis suggests the stock is undervalued based on its Fair Value model. Wadewitz’s analysis focused on the separation of factors influencing operating income growth for U.S. railroads, particularly examining the balance between price/yield performance and inflation.
The report suggests that inflation costs in 2025 may surpass the revenue generated from price and mix for major rail companies such as Union Pacific (NYSE:UNP), CSX, and Norfolk Southern Corp (NYSE:NSC). While UBS anticipates significant productivity improvements, with expected gains of $400 million for UNP and $270 million for NSC, these are not sufficient to uphold previous earnings per share (EPS) estimates. CSX maintains impressive gross profit margins of 48.65% and generates annual revenue of $14.54 billion, demonstrating its strong market position. InvestingPro subscribers can access detailed financial health scores and 12 additional ProTips about CSX’s performance.
Consequently, UBS has lowered its 2025 EPS forecast for UNP from $11.80 to $11.60 and for NSC from $12.90 to $12.60. For CSX, the 2025 EPS estimate has been adjusted downward from $1.83 to $1.71. This revision is attributed to anticipated challenges, including lower coal pricing, a decline in chemicals volume that dilutes the mix, and rerouting expenses, which together are expected to create a year-over-year headwind of $390 million from yield-cost dollars.
Additionally, UBS has reduced its 2026 EPS estimates by 4% for UNP, 7% for NSC, and 8% for CSX, reflecting a yield performance that aligns with a more moderate cyclical recovery. The report includes a summary of the changes to EPS estimates and price targets for the companies analyzed, with CSX’s price target being adjusted to $36 from $39, NSC’s to $284 from $305, and UNP’s to $245 from $255. According to InvestingPro data, CSX’s FY2025 EPS is forecast at $1.81, with the stock currently trading at a P/E ratio of 16.49. Get access to CSX’s comprehensive Pro Research Report, part of InvestingPro’s coverage of over 1,400 US stocks, for deeper insights into the company’s valuation and growth prospects.
In other recent news, CSX Corporation announced a tentative five-year collective bargaining agreement with the International Brotherhood of Boilermakers, pending ratification. This agreement is part of CSX’s ongoing efforts to enhance working conditions and benefits for its unionized workforce. Additionally, CSX completed a public offering of $600 million in 5.05% notes due 2035, aimed at managing its capital structure and funding future investments. In the realm of analyst updates, BofA Securities adjusted its price target for CSX to $33 from $35, maintaining a Neutral rating due to underwhelming carload performance. Meanwhile, RBC Capital Markets also revised its price target to $33 from $34, citing operational challenges and cost pressures impacting earnings growth projections for 2025.
Benchmark analyst Nathan Martin maintained a Buy rating on CSX, with a price target of $38, highlighting the company’s ability to meet its three-year EPS growth target despite current challenges. CSX’s management anticipates low to mid-single digit volume growth for the year, driven by merchandise and intermodal segments. The company faces a $300 million net impact from lower export coal and fuel prices, as well as a $100 million headwind from construction projects. Despite these hurdles, CSX remains focused on improving service levels and infrastructure projects to meet its long-term growth objectives.
This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.