UBS cuts Hindustan Aeronautics stock rating to neutral

Published 20/05/2025, 06:58
UBS cuts Hindustan Aeronautics stock rating to neutral

On Tuesday, UBS analyst Amit Mahawar downgraded Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (NSE:HIAE) (HNAL:IN) from Buy to Neutral, despite increasing the price target to INR5,600.00 from INR5,440.00. The change in rating by UBS reflects a reassessment of the company’s near-term growth drivers and order book expectations.

Mahawar explained the reasoning behind the downgrade, noting that significant near-term catalysts, such as the resolution of the GE F404 engine delay and orders for the Light Combat Helicopter and LCA MK1A fighter aircraft, are now reflected in Hindustan Aeronautics’ current stock price. Furthermore, UBS has revised its order book compound annual growth rate (CAGR) forecast from 21% to 14% for the fiscal years 2026 to 2028, following the company’s updated guidance on the timelines for the Su-30 MKI fighter aircraft upgrade and the LCA Mark 2 order.

The analyst also discussed the company’s fiscal year 2026 revenue projections, which are based on contractual deliveries of various platforms. While the guidance suggests a 7-8% top-line growth, this could potentially increase with additional LCA MK1A deliveries. However, this projection falls short of the consensus and UBS estimates, which predict 24% and 22% revenue growth, respectively.

Mahawar further commented on the company’s financial outlook, indicating that the strong guidance on margins and the expected manufacturing ramp-up are likely to support Hindustan Aeronautics’ profit and loss statement and provide a buffer against downside risks.

The revised price target of INR5,600.00 represents a slight increase from the previous target of INR5,440.00, suggesting that while the growth prospects of Hindustan Aeronautics may have moderated, UBS still sees some value in the stock at its current level.

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