Index falls as earnings results weigh; pound above $1.33, Bodycote soars
On Wednesday, UBS analyst Thomas Wadewitz revised the price target for Union Pacific (NYSE:UNP) stock, reducing it to $245 from the previous $255, while maintaining a Neutral rating on the shares. Currently trading at $235.93, the stock is near its InvestingPro Fair Value, with a P/E ratio of 21.25 reflecting its premium market position. According to InvestingPro, the company maintains impressive gross profit margins of 55.64% and generally trades with low price volatility. The adjustment comes in the wake of a detailed analysis of the operating income growth drivers for U.S. railroads, with a particular emphasis on the balance between price/yield performance and inflation.
Wadewitz’s report highlights concerns over the possibility of softening in industrial end markets, which could lead to inflation costs in 2025 surpassing the revenue gains from price and mix for Union Pacific, as well as for its peers CSX (NASDAQ:CSX) and Norfolk Southern (NYSE:NSC). While the analyst anticipates Union Pacific to achieve significant productivity improvements estimated at $400 million, this is not seen as sufficient to uphold previous earnings per share (EPS) estimates. InvestingPro data shows the company maintains a solid financial health score of FAIR, with 10+ additional exclusive insights available to subscribers through the comprehensive Pro Research Report.
Consequently, UBS has lowered its 2025 EPS estimate for Union Pacific from $11.80 to $11.60. The report also reflects adjustments for other major railroads, with EPS forecasts for Norfolk Southern dropping from $12.90 to $12.60, and for CSX from $1.83 to $1.71. The downward revisions are attributed to various factors including lower coal pricing, a weaker chemicals volume, and increased rerouting expenses which collectively contribute to a $390 million year-over-year headwind from yield-cost dollars.
Looking further ahead, UBS has also decreased its 2026 EPS estimates by 4% for Union Pacific, 7% for Norfolk Southern, and 8% for CSX. These changes are based on yield performance projections aligned with expectations of a more subdued cyclical rebound in the sector. The report includes a summary of the EPS estimate revisions and price target changes for the covered railroads, with Union Pacific’s price target adjustment being part of a broader reassessment of the industry’s financial outlook. Despite market uncertainties, Union Pacific has demonstrated remarkable stability, having maintained dividend payments for 55 consecutive years and raised them for 18 straight years, with a current yield of 2.26%.
In other recent news, Union Pacific Corporation reported a fourth-quarter earnings per share (EPS) of $2.91, surpassing the consensus estimate of $2.79. This performance prompted Benchmark to raise its price target for the company to $275, maintaining a Buy rating. Conversely, Loop Capital downgraded Union Pacific’s stock from Hold to Sell, reducing the price target to $200 due to concerns about tariffs impacting the North American auto industry. Additionally, Union Pacific announced a $1.5 billion stock buyback through agreements with Barclays (LON:BARC) Bank PLC and Citibank, N.A., reflecting its financial strength and commitment to returning value to shareholders. The company also issued $2 billion in corporate notes, with proceeds intended for general corporate purposes, including refinancing existing debt and funding capital expenditures.
Union Pacific has reached a tentative labor agreement with the National Conference of Firemen & Oilers, pending ratification. This agreement includes wage increases, additional vacation time, and health benefits. The company continues to focus on operational improvements, achieving record levels of workforce productivity, train length, and terminal dwell time. Union Pacific’s management anticipates net volume growth in 2025, with strong performance expected in grain and industrial chemicals. However, challenges remain in the demand for coal, metals, and international intermodal volumes.
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