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Tuesday, Sika AG (SIX:SIKA:SW) (OTC: SKFOF) shares maintained a Buy rating and a price target of CHF295.00, as reiterated by UBS analysts. The firm anticipates the company's preliminary financial results for the full year 2024, which are expected to be released on January 9, to reflect a continued organic growth trend.
Sika's estimated growth for the fourth quarter of 2024 is projected at 2.5%, contributing to an expected local currency (LC) growth rate of 3.0% for the quarter.
The forecasted full year 2024 LC growth rate is 7.6%, aligning with Sika's guidance of 6-9%. This estimate is consistent with the consensus of various analysts, which stands at 7.5%. UBS also predicts that Sika will reiterate its earnings guidance, projecting a 10% increase in EBITDA for 2024, with an anticipated improvement in margin by 100 basis points year-over-year.
In preparation for the upcoming preliminary results, UBS has slightly adjusted its model for Sika, reducing the earnings per share (EPS) estimates by 1% to 2% for the period of 2024-2026. The revision accounts for a marginally slower margin progression, as Sika is expected to avoid cutting fixed costs to increase market share as volumes recover. Despite these adjustments, UBS's price target remains unchanged due to the rolling forward of their discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis.
UBS suggests that the forthcoming preliminary results could signal an end to the cycle of downward revisions by analysts, potentially reducing pressure on Sika's stock. However, UBS notes that for a more positive market response, reassuring information regarding the outlook for 2025 would be necessary, which is unlikely to be provided until the final numbers are released on February 21.
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