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On Wednesday, UBS analysts initiated coverage on International Paper stock, listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker (NYSE:IP), with a Buy rating and a price target of $60.00. With a current market capitalization of nearly $25 billion and a P/E ratio of 44.2, InvestingPro data suggests the stock is trading slightly above its Fair Value. This new rating highlights the company’s potential for growth in the paper packaging sector.
UBS analysts see International Paper as their top pick among four paper packaging stocks. They forecast approximately 50% EBITDA growth from 2025 to 2027 from the current $1.96 billion, which they believe will contribute to a re-rating of the stock. The company’s impressive 55-year track record of maintaining dividend payments, currently yielding 3.91%, adds to its appeal. The analysis indicates that the company has opportunities for self-improvement, which, combined with lower sell-side expectations, could lead to further upside.
The analysts’ 2027 EBITDA estimates are $400 million higher than consensus, reflecting their optimistic view on linerboard price increases and cost savings achievements. They expect linerboard price increases to contribute $200 million, and cost savings to add another $200 million to the company’s performance.
UBS anticipates International Paper’s margins will approach 19% by 2027, narrowing the gap with industry leader PKG, which maintains margins around 20%. This improvement is expected to lead to multiple expansion as the performance gap closes.
The Buy rating and optimistic projections suggest that International Paper’s stock may present a buying opportunity for investors looking for growth in the paper packaging industry. Analyst price targets currently range from $39.90 to $65.00, reflecting diverse market opinions. For deeper insights into International Paper’s valuation and growth prospects, investors can access comprehensive analysis and additional ProTips through InvestingPro’s detailed research reports.
In other recent news, the containerboard industry is experiencing notable shifts, with various developments impacting major companies. Georgia-Pacific announced the permanent closure of its Cedar Springs, Georgia mill, effective August 1, 2025, reducing the industry’s capacity by approximately 1 million tons. This closure is part of a broader trend, with similar actions by companies like International Paper and WestRock (NYSE:WRK), leading to a total reduction of 2.25 million tons, or 5.4% of the U.S. supply. Analysts at Jefferies and Citi view these developments as beneficial for stabilizing the market, potentially increasing operating rates and maintaining steady containerboard prices.
Truist Financial (NYSE:TFC) Corporation highlighted rising containerboard prices in Italy and Spain, with increases in unbleached kraftliner and testliner prices. These price hikes are seen as positive for companies such as WestRock and International Paper, with potential implications for other European regions. Meanwhile, Domtar (NYSE:UFS) is considering converting its Gatineau, QC mill to containerboard production, a move driven by declining graphic paper demand. This conversion aligns with Domtar’s strategy to repurpose assets, although the outcome remains uncertain due to logistical challenges.
The industry’s adjustments come amid a decline in containerboard demand, with a 2.1% decrease in the first quarter of 2025. Despite concerns about a potential recession, analysts suggest that supply discipline and stabilizing demand could prevent further price declines. As the market adapts to these changes, stakeholders are closely monitoring the impact on companies like International Paper, WestRock, and Packaging (NYSE:PKG) Corporation of America.
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