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On Wednesday, UBS analyst Charles Boissier changed the rating on Castellum AB (CAST:SS) (OTC:CWQXF), a Swedish real estate company, from Sell to Neutral, while adjusting the price target from SEK 125.00 to SEK 120.00. Boissier’s assessment follows a period of underperformance by Castellum’s shares both year-to-date and since the introduction of U.S. tariffs on April 1, 2023. The stock has seen a decline of 7% year-to-date compared to a 2% gain for EPRA Europe, and a 7.4% decrease since the tariff announcements.
The analyst believes that Castellum’s shares have now aligned more closely with the company’s fundamentals. In a sector where credit risks are becoming more prominent, Castellum’s diversified approach relative to its Swedish peers is seen as a strength. The recent poor performance is highlighted by a 24% discount to its Net Asset Value (NAV) and an EPRA Loan-to-Value (LTV) ratio of 49.4%, suggesting a potential value loss of 13.2%. Castellum’s shares are also trading at a wider discount to NAV compared to the EPRA Sweden average of 16.8%.
Boissier notes Castellum’s improving operations and leverage, as evidenced by further leasing progress and the resumption of dividends at the full-year 2024 results. These factors contribute to the analyst’s confidence in Castellum’s ability to withstand economic downturns potentially triggered by tariffs, supported by the company’s diversified portfolio across different sectors and markets.
The decision to update the model and reduce the price target by 4% to SEK 120 reflects the adjustments for the company’s recent financial results. This new price target, in conjunction with the stock’s weak performance over the past twelve months, has led to the upgrade to a Neutral rating.
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