UBS lifts Philip Morris stock rating to neutral, target to $170

Published 25/04/2025, 09:18
UBS lifts Philip Morris stock rating to neutral, target to $170

On Friday, UBS analyst Faham Baig revised the rating for Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE:PM) to Neutral from the previous Sell stance, accompanied by a significant increase in the price target to $170 from $130. The adjustment came after Philip Morris reported a robust first quarter, with earnings per share (EPS) surpassing expectations by 6%. The stock, currently trading at $170.07, is near its 52-week high of $171.63, reflecting strong market confidence. Furthermore, the company’s full-year 2025 EPS guidance was raised, with the midpoint now reflecting a 4.5% increase, primarily influenced by favorable foreign exchange rates. According to InvestingPro data, seven analysts have recently revised their earnings estimates upward for the upcoming period.

Baig highlighted the company’s performance, attributing the positive outlook to the strength in the Smoke-Free product line’s gross margins. The company maintains impressive gross profit margins of 65.68%, according to InvestingPro data. In response to these factors, UBS raised its EPS estimates for Philip Morris by 3%. The analyst anticipates additional upside to the company’s full-year 2025 EPS guidance, supported by the continued success of its Smoke-Free products.

The new price target of $170 is now based on a forward-looking price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 19.0 times for the fiscal year 2026 estimates, which marks an increase from the previously applied multiple of 15.0 times. This revision aligns the valuation with the average P/E multiple seen in the U.S. Consumer Staples sector and is deemed to more accurately reflect Philip Morris’s growth trajectory. UBS forecasts that the company will maintain high single-digit EPS growth over the medium term.

According to Baig, Philip Morris’s solid and resilient operational performance, particularly in the face of current macroeconomic uncertainties, no longer justifies a Sell rating. The upgrade to Neutral reflects a more balanced view of the stock’s potential moving forward. The new price target and rating change by UBS indicate a revised perspective on Philip Morris’s market position and future earnings capacity.

In other recent news, Philip Morris International Inc. reported a strong start to 2025, surpassing both earnings and revenue forecasts for the first quarter. The company achieved earnings per share (EPS) of $1.69, which exceeded analyst projections of $1.60, and reported revenues of $9.3 billion, surpassing the expected $9.06 billion. This performance was driven by a 10.2% increase in organic net revenue and significant growth in the company’s smoke-free product segment, which now accounts for 44% of total gross profit. Stifel analysts responded to these positive results by raising their price target for Philip Morris to $186, maintaining a Buy rating. The increased target reflects confidence in the company’s continued growth, supported by the expansion of its smoke-free product line and strategic market positioning. Additionally, Philip Morris has raised its shipment guidance for ZYN, a smoke-free product, to 800-840 million cans for the year, indicating strong demand and improved supply chain conditions. These developments highlight Philip Morris’s strategic pivot towards smoke-free alternatives amidst a declining cigarette industry.

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