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On Wednesday, UBS analyst Dennis Geiger increased the price target for Starbucks stock (NASDAQ:SBUX) to $105 from the previous $98, while maintaining a Neutral rating on the company. The stock, currently trading near its 52-week high of $103.32, has shown remarkable momentum with a 35.16% return over the past six months. Geiger’s adjustment followed Starbucks’ first-quarter earnings, which showcased stronger-than-anticipated same-store sales (sss) and a slight uptick in margins and earnings. According to InvestingPro, the company maintains a GOOD overall financial health score, though it currently trades at a relatively high P/E ratio of 30.12.
Starbucks’ recent "Back to Starbucks" strategic initiatives, aimed at accelerating sales growth, appear to be gaining momentum. Management’s anticipation of positive U.S. and global comparable sales in the second quarter was also a positive note from the earnings report. However, Geiger noted that earnings per share (EPS) are likely to be significantly pressured in the second quarter due to investments and restructuring charges. Yet, there is an expectation for improved year-over-year trends in the second half of the fiscal year, with the potential for positive EPS growth by the fourth quarter, estimated at $0.87 or an 8.7% increase year-over-year. The company’s solid dividend yield of 2.43% and 15-year track record of consecutive dividend increases, as highlighted by InvestingPro, demonstrate its commitment to shareholder returns despite near-term pressures.
For the full fiscal year 2025, Geiger models a $2.94 EPS for Starbucks. The forecast also anticipates a slowdown in store development, including some closures, contrasted with the long-term opportunity to double the current U.S. store count. With a market capitalization of $114.06 billion, Starbucks remains a dominant force in the global coffee market. The report acknowledged a modest improvement in China’s trends, attributing this to easier comparisons, seasonal effects, and gradual gains in performance. Starbucks’ initiatives and a probable strategic partnership are expected to enhance the narrative in China. For deeper insights into Starbucks’ global expansion strategy and comprehensive financial analysis, consider accessing the detailed Pro Research Report available on InvestingPro.
The UBS analyst expressed optimism about the potential for Starbucks shares to rise as the company’s plans progress and the sales trajectory strengthens. However, Geiger indicated a need for clearer visibility into the outlook for sales gains and the potential upside for margins and earnings power before adopting a more constructive stance on the stock. Based on InvestingPro’s Fair Value analysis, the stock appears slightly overvalued at current levels, suggesting investors should carefully consider entry points.
In other recent news, Starbucks has experienced several noteworthy developments. Stifel analysts have raised the company’s stock price target to $114, maintaining a positive outlook despite projecting a 6.0% decline in U.S. comparable sales for the fiscal first quarter. Starbucks is also set to report its fiscal first quarter earnings, with expectations of value gain, particularly if the stock dips due to concerns over coffee tariffs.
The company has also been the subject of discussion due to potential tariffs on Colombian exports, with TD Cowen and Stifel analysts suggesting varying impacts on Starbucks’ financials. Amid these developments, Alshaya Group, a Kuwait-based conglomerate, has paused discussions regarding the sale of a stake in its Starbucks franchise.
Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) has reiterated its Buy rating for Starbucks shares, indicating a slight decline in customer concerns over pricing, suggesting an improvement in the coffee chain’s value perception. In addition, Starbucks has announced a new phase in its ongoing initiative, "Back to Starbucks," aiming to transform its support organization, which may streamline processes and improve efficiency across operations. These recent developments provide investors with insights into Starbucks’ operational and financial landscape.
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