UBS maintains neutral Peloton stock with $7.50 target

Published 07/04/2025, 12:38
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On Monday, UBS analysts reiterated their Neutral rating on Peloton Interactive stock (NASDAQ:PTON) with a consistent price target of $7.50. Currently trading at $5.03, the stock has experienced significant pressure, falling over 20% in the past week according to InvestingPro data. The platform reveals 12 key investment insights for Peloton, including detailed analysis of its market position and growth prospects. The focus of their commentary was on the potential impact of new reciprocal tariffs on the company’s cost of goods sold (COGS). Peloton, which sources most of its products from Taiwan and China, might be exempt from the new U.S. tariffs imposed on Taiwanese goods, which could include a 32% tariff.

The exemption possibility arises from Peloton’s prior exposure to aluminum tariffs and the notice that some proposed actions will not be subject to reciprocal tariffs. With a healthy current ratio of 2.06 and gross profit margins of 47.45%, InvestingPro data suggests the company maintains strong operational efficiency despite these challenges. These include "articles subject to 50 USC 1702(b) and steel/aluminum articles and auto’s/auto parts already subject to Section 232 tariffs." UBS is closely monitoring the situation, acknowledging the fluid nature of trade tariffs and their potential impact on Peloton.

Peloton had previously indicated that if all tariffs imposed on Canada and Mexico were enforced, the impact on their connected fitness product COGS would be less than 1%, mostly affecting apparel and Precor. Similarly, the unmitigated impact of a 10% tariff on China was estimated to be less than a 1% increase in COGS. UBS believes that the newly announced reciprocal tariffs on China, which are the latest development, will have an immaterial effect on Peloton’s COGS.

However, UBS analysts cautioned that the full economic impact is challenging to assess, especially in the event of a recession and higher inflation. The connected fitness industry is discretionary, and broader economic factors could affect the company’s performance. With a beta of 2.22 and projected revenue decline of 9% for the current year, the stock shows significant sensitivity to market conditions. The analysts’ current assessment does not account for any mitigating factors that might influence the overall economic impact on Peloton. For comprehensive analysis including Fair Value estimates and detailed financial health metrics, investors can access the full Pro Research Report available on InvestingPro.

In other recent news, Peloton Interactive’s financial and strategic developments have garnered significant attention from analysts and investors. Citi analysts recently adjusted Peloton’s price target to $10.00, maintaining a Neutral rating after noting improvements in customer engagement and profitability. The company’s recent product launches have been pivotal in stabilizing subscription churn rates and enhancing gross margins. Meanwhile, Canaccord Genuity upgraded Peloton’s stock from Hold to Buy, highlighting the company’s strategic cost restructuring and projected increase in adjusted EBITDA to between $300 million and $350 million by fiscal year 2025.

JMP Securities has maintained a Market Perform rating on Peloton, emphasizing the importance of subscriber growth for future valuation reassessment. Analysts from Stifel have expressed cautious optimism about Peloton’s long-term financial prospects, anticipating potential improvements by fiscal year 2026. Needham analysts have retained a Hold rating, acknowledging Peloton’s progress in refining unit economics but expressing concerns over revenue growth challenges. Peloton’s efforts to right-size its cost structure and improve operational efficiencies are under close scrutiny as the company seeks to regain growth momentum.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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