UBS maintains Nucor stock Neutral rating, $156 target

Published 28/01/2025, 17:08
UBS maintains Nucor stock Neutral rating, $156 target

On Tuesday, UBS reaffirmed its Neutral rating and a $156.00 price target for Nucor Corporation (NYSE:NUE) shares. The firm’s analyst, Andrew Jones, anchored the price target on an 8.0x EV/EBITDA multiple of the 12-month forward EBITDA estimates, spanning from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the third quarter of 2026. This valuation reflects a "trough multiple" based on the current depressed EBITDA levels. According to InvestingPro data, Nucor currently trades at an EV/EBITDA of 7.53x, with a market capitalization of $29.58 billion. The stock appears slightly undervalued based on InvestingPro’s Fair Value analysis.

Nucor has provided guidance for its first-quarter earnings per share (EPS) to be flat or lower compared to the fourth quarter EPS of $1.22 per share. Analyst expectations are slightly below this at $1.18 per share. The company anticipates higher corporate, administrative, and tax expenses in the first quarter of 2025, which may result in earnings being less than the previous quarter. InvestingPro data reveals that three analysts have recently revised their earnings estimates downward, while the company maintains a solid financial health score of 2.88 (GOOD). For deeper insights into Nucor’s financial metrics and analyst coverage, investors can access the comprehensive Pro Research Report available on InvestingPro.

The steel producer expects similar earnings before tax (EBT) for its Steel Mills & Products segment in the first quarter of 2025, with higher volumes balancing out lower realized prices. However, a decline is anticipated in the Raw Materials segment’s EBT due to increased volumes at lower prices, particularly for direct reduced iron (DRI).

Current Value Analyst (VA) consensus estimates suggest that the Steel Mills segment could see an EBT of $324 million in the first quarter of 2025, a significant increase from $169 million in the fourth quarter of 2024. Conversely, the Steel Products segment is projected to experience a slight decrease in EBT from $329 million in the fourth quarter of 2024 to $278 million in the first quarter of 2025. The Raw Materials segment is also expected to see a decrease in EBT from $57 million in the fourth quarter of 2024 to $34 million in the first quarter of 2025.

Despite these projections, the consensus EBT for the first quarter of 2025 appears optimistic at $443 million, especially when compared to the $390 million EBT in the fourth quarter of 2024 and considering the company’s guidance.

Nucor has also outlined its capital expenditure (capex) for the fiscal year 2025, guiding it to be approximately $3 billion. This forecast aligns closely with UBS’s estimate of $2.9 billion and the consensus estimate of $3.2 billion. The planned capex is mainly allocated for projects in West Virginia.

In other recent news, Nucor Corporation reported impressive Q4 earnings per share of $1.22, notably exceeding analyst estimates of $0.77. The company’s revenue also surpassed expectations, registering at $7.08 billion, compared to the projected $6.81 billion. Despite this, net earnings attributable to Nucor stockholders were $287 million in Q4, a decrease from $785 million in the same quarter of the previous year.

For the full year 2024, Nucor reported net earnings of $2.03 billion on revenue of $30.73 billion. Looking ahead, Nucor anticipates Q1 2025 earnings in its steel mills and steel products segments to be on par with Q4 levels, though it expects lower earnings in its raw materials segment and higher corporate costs.

Additionally, Nucor has maintained its commitment to rewarding stockholders, returning approximately $2.74 billion in 2024 through share repurchases and dividend payments. In terms of analyst commentary, KeyBanc has maintained a Sector Weight rating for Nucor, indicating a view of the stock as fairly valued at current levels. These are some of the recent developments concerning Nucor Corporation.

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