UBS maintains NVIDIA stock Buy rating with $185 target

On Wednesday, UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri maintained a Buy rating on NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA), with a steadfast price target of $185.00. The firm’s commentary followed NVIDIA’s announcement that its H20 product would now necessitate a license for exports to China and other D5 countries, which includes Russia and nations under U.S. arms embargoes. NVIDIA also disclosed that it is establishing a $5.5 billion reserve in light of this development. The semiconductor giant, currently valued at $2.56 trillion, maintains a perfect Piotroski Score of 9 according to InvestingPro data, indicating exceptional financial strength.

Arcuri noted that this licensing requirement effectively acts as a ban, potentially hindering NVIDIA’s capacity to exceed financial expectations. Despite this, he suggested that the move might be considered a positive "clearing event" for NVIDIA’s stock. The implication is that NVIDIA’s commitment to invest $500 billion in AI infrastructure within the United States over the next four years could be a strategic concession to counteract the proposed AI Diffusion Rule. With impressive revenue growth of 114.2% over the last twelve months and a strong analyst consensus rating of 1.4 (Strong Buy), NVIDIA continues to demonstrate robust financial performance. InvestingPro subscribers can access 15+ additional exclusive insights about NVIDIA’s growth prospects and valuation metrics.

While UBS is not altering its current financial estimates for NVIDIA, Arcuri acknowledged that completely removing H20 from their projections could lead to an approximate $0.20 impact on earnings per share (EPS). The analyst’s remarks reflect an assessment of the situation based on conversations with industry sources and a consideration of the potential financial implications for NVIDIA.

The announcement and the subsequent analyst commentary come at a time when technology companies are navigating a complex global landscape of trade restrictions and geopolitical tensions. NVIDIA’s decision to reserve a significant sum suggests a cautious approach to these challenges.

NVIDIA’s stock performance and investor sentiment will likely continue to be influenced by the company’s strategic decisions and their alignment with regulatory requirements. The technology sector, particularly companies like NVIDIA with a strong focus on AI and chip development, remains under close scrutiny as global trade policies evolve.

In other recent news, NVIDIA Corporation has reported significant developments impacting its financial outlook. The company disclosed that it expects to incur approximately $5.5 billion in charges related to its H20 products due to new U.S. government export licensing requirements for shipments to China. This has led to adjustments in earnings projections, with Piper Sandler setting NVIDIA’s earnings per share estimates at $3.45 for fiscal year 2026 and $5.08 for fiscal year 2027. Despite the export challenges, analyst firms like Cantor Fitzgerald and Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) Securities maintain confidence in NVIDIA’s strategic positioning, with price targets of $200 and $168, respectively.

William Blair reiterated an Outperform rating, emphasizing NVIDIA’s leadership in AI infrastructure despite the new export curbs. Raymond (NSE:RYMD) James also cut its price target to $150 but maintained a Strong Buy rating, noting that the company’s current stock price reflects the risks associated with the export restrictions. Analysts highlighted NVIDIA’s proactive approach to regulatory challenges, with the firm actively exploring solutions to mitigate potential revenue impacts. Additionally, NVIDIA’s focus on expanding its AI market presence and the anticipated ramp-up of its Blackwell GPUs are seen as positive indicators for its future growth. These developments underscore the dynamic environment NVIDIA is navigating amid regulatory and market shifts.

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