Tuesday, UBS initiated coverage on Frontier Group Holdings Inc (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ULCC) shares with a Neutral rating and a price target of $6.00. The firm anticipates that the airline will experience financial improvements in the coming years, specifically in 2025 and 2026, due to higher revenue per available seat mile (RASM) as new markets and routes mature.
The growth is expected to be further supported by Frontier's new offerings, UpFront Plus and BizFare, which are designed to attract economy and corporate customers, respectively.
The airline is also expected to benefit from reduced competition, as rivals like Spirit and Southwest Airlines (NYSE: NYSE:LUV) scale back their capacity. Despite these positive factors, UBS forecasts that Frontier will face significant cost pressures, particularly from increased aircraft rent and reduced gains from sale-leaseback transactions year-over-year. These pressures are projected to result in a 700 to 800 basis points increase in cost per available seat mile excluding fuel (CASM-ex) in 2025.
UBS projects a gradual improvement in Frontier's pre-tax profit margins, estimating a rise from 0.2% in 2024 to 3.1% in 2025, which is slightly below the consensus of 3.8%. For 2026, the margin is expected to reach 6.4%, compared to a consensus estimate of 7.3%.
The firm suggests that for the market to gain confidence in the airline's ability to meet forward estimates, Frontier will need to demonstrate accelerated growth in RASM and margins in the near term.
Until such evidence of growth is presented, UBS anticipates that Frontier's stock will remain volatile. The coverage assumes that the stock will fluctuate but stay within a certain range, reflecting the market's wait-and-see approach regarding the airline's performance against its growth and efficiency targets.
In other recent news, Frontier Communications (OTC:FTRCQ) Parent, Inc. disclosed its Q3 2024 results, which fell short of earnings expectations but surpassed revenue forecasts. The company reported a loss of $0.33 per share, more than the projected loss of $0.19 per share. However, Frontier's revenue was $1.49 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.46 billion.
In terms of customer growth, Frontier added 108,000 fiber broadband customers in Q3, increasing its total fiber broadband customer base to 2.3 million, a 19.3% YoY rise. The company's fiber network also expanded to reach 7.6 million total locations passed, a growth of 381,000 from the last quarter.
Consumer fiber broadband revenue saw a 21.8% YoY increase to $414 million, spurred by both customer and average revenue per user (ARPU) growth. The ARPU for consumer fiber broadband rose 1.4% YoY to $65.40.
Frontier's CEO, Nick Jeffery, commented on the company's continued momentum in its fiber expansion strategy, highlighting the addition of over 100,000 new fiber broadband customers for the fifth consecutive quarter.
For the full year, Frontier maintained its guidance for adjusted EBITDA of $2.11-$2.16 billion and capital expenditures of $2.8-$3.0 billion. These are the latest developments for Frontier Communications.
InvestingPro Insights
Recent InvestingPro data provides additional context to UBS's analysis of Frontier Group Holdings Inc (NASDAQ: ULCC). The company's market capitalization stands at $1.3 billion, reflecting its current position in the airline industry. Frontier's revenue for the last twelve months as of Q3 2023 was $3.66 billion, with a modest revenue growth of 1.66% over the same period.
InvestingPro Tips highlight some challenges facing Frontier, aligning with UBS's cautious stance. The company operates with a significant debt burden and may have trouble making interest payments, which could contribute to the cost pressures mentioned in the UBS report. Additionally, Frontier is quickly burning through cash, which may impact its ability to invest in growth initiatives like UpFront Plus and BizFare.
On a positive note, net income is expected to grow this year, and analysts predict the company will be profitable, supporting UBS's projection of improving pre-tax profit margins. However, the stock's volatility, as noted by UBS, is corroborated by an InvestingPro Tip indicating that ULCC's stock price movements are indeed quite volatile.
For investors seeking a more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers 13 additional tips for Frontier Group Holdings, providing a deeper understanding of the company's financial health and market position.
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