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On Monday, UBS analyst Nasib Ahmed upgraded ASR Nederland NV (AS:ASRNL:NA) (OTC: ASRRF) from Neutral to Buy, setting a new price target to EUR51.50 from EUR47.00. The upgrade follows ASR Nederland's announcement earlier this month of a special share buyback program valued at €100 million, which represents 1% of the company's market capitalization.
According to the UBS analyst, ASR Nederland's management has stated that the expected return on this buyback surpasses the company's minimum return requirement for investments. Given ASR's operating cash generation (OCG) yield of 15%, the threshold for reinvestment is notably higher than ASR's usual return on investment (RoI) of over 12%.
UBS forecasts that ASR Nederland will undertake additional share buybacks of €25 million per annum above guidance and previous estimates. This adjustment is anticipated to bring ASR's fiscal year 2026 estimated all-in yield to 10%, aligning it with that of NN Group (AS:NN), a comparable company in the sector.
The upgrade also takes into account the recent statement from Aegon (NYSE:AEG) on Friday, which described itself as a 'patient owner' of ASR Nederland. This suggests that ASR Nederland may proceed with incremental share buybacks in the short term rather than waiting for a potential placing in the future.
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