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Investing.com - TD Cowen has reiterated its Buy rating and $86.00 price target on Ultragenyx Pharma (NASDAQ:RARE) despite disappointing interim analysis results for its setrusumab treatment. The stock, currently trading near its 52-week low of $29.59, has analyst targets ranging from $39 to $136, with a strong Buy consensus rating of 1.35 according to InvestingPro data.
The firm acknowledged that missing the interim analysis 2 (IA2) endpoint was disappointing but maintained conviction in the efficacy of setrusumab, with the final readout expected in December 2025. The company maintains a current ratio of 2.4, indicating strong liquidity to fund its ongoing clinical trials.
TD Cowen estimates there is a greater than 70% chance of success at the final analysis with a treatment effect exceeding 40%, suggesting significant potential for the therapy despite the current setback.
The research firm noted that key opinion leaders remain optimistic about the treatment’s potential uptake if the Orbit trial ultimately succeeds, particularly if it demonstrates annual fracture rate reductions of more than 20-25%.
TD Cowen views the stock’s post-announcement weakness, with shares trading at $29 after market close, as a buying opportunity ahead of the final analysis results expected late next year. InvestingPro analysis suggests the stock is currently undervalued, with 7 analysts recently revising their earnings expectations upward. Discover more valuable insights and detailed analysis in the comprehensive Pro Research Report, available exclusively to InvestingPro subscribers.
In other recent news, Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (TADAWUL:2070) Inc. announced that its Phase 3 Orbit study for the drug setrusumab, intended for treating osteogenesis imperfecta, will continue to its final analysis phase after not meeting the interim analysis thresholds. Despite this setback, several investment firms, including Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) and BofA Securities, have maintained positive ratings on the company, with price targets of $65 and $80, respectively. Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) also adjusted its price target to $65, citing a delay in trial timelines but maintaining an Overweight rating. The Data Monitoring Committee confirmed the drug’s acceptable safety profile, allowing the study to proceed, with final results expected by the end of 2025. Canaccord Genuity has sustained its Buy rating with a $136 price target, noting that the market reaction to the trial’s interim results may have been excessive. Both the Orbit and Cosmic studies are ongoing, with final analyses to be conducted after patients have been on therapy for at least 18 months. The threshold for statistical significance for the final analyses is set at p
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