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On Wednesday, Canaccord Genuity analyst Maria Ripps revised the price target for Vivid Seats Inc. (NASDAQ: SEAT) to $4.00, down from the previous $5.00, while maintaining a Buy rating on the company’s stock. According to InvestingPro data, the stock has declined over 62% year-to-date, with shares currently trading at $1.74, near their 52-week low of $1.68. Ripps highlighted that Vivid Seats reported weaker-than-expected results for the first quarter, with a year-over-year decline of approximately 20% in both total orders and Marketplace Gross Order Value (GOV), falling short of Canaccord Genuity’s estimates (CGe). Revenues and profitability also did not meet consensus expectations.
The competitive landscape has been challenging for Vivid Seats, with Ripps noting that this has been a significant obstacle for several quarters. A leading competitor’s aggressive investment in performance marketing channels continued to affect Vivid Seats in the first quarter. Additionally, the broader economic uncertainty has had an impact on consumer demand, which was evident as industry volume growth slowed in February after a strong January and experienced a double-digit decline in March. This resulted in essentially flat industry volumes year-over-year for the first quarter.
Ripps mentioned that an industry-wide issue arose from changes Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL) made to data reporting in late February, which led to more competitive bidding and decreased marketing efficiency. However, Vivid Seats has since updated its bidding algorithms, which is expected to mitigate the impact of these changes.
Despite observing some improvement in April, Vivid Seats has decided to suspend its financial guidance for the fiscal year 2025 due to the prevailing uncertainties. The company anticipates that the performance in the second quarter will be similar to the first quarter and does not expect a return to growth in fiscal year 2025, even with softer comparisons in the second half of the year.
Following the announcement, shares of Vivid Seats experienced a significant drop. Ripps pointed out that with the stock’s year-to-date decline exceeding 60% and its valuation at approximately 1x fiscal year 2025 revenue and around 6.5x EBITDA, any early indicators of recovery could potentially stabilize investor sentiment. InvestingPro analysis suggests the stock is currently undervalued, with additional ProTips indicating oversold conditions and strong gross margins of 73.72%. The adjusted financial projections from Canaccord Genuity reflect the increased competitive pressures and macroeconomic challenges facing the company. Investors seeking deeper insights can access 12 more exclusive ProTips and comprehensive valuation metrics through InvestingPro’s detailed research report.
In other recent news, Vivid Seats Inc. reported its first-quarter 2025 earnings, revealing a revenue of $164 million, which fell short of the $170 million forecast. The company’s earnings per share (EPS) was -$0.0131, aligning with expectations, yet the revenue shortfall marked a significant deviation, contributing to investor concerns. The quarter saw a 14% year-over-year decline in revenue, with the marketplace Gross Order Value (GOV) dropping 20% compared to the previous year. Vivid Seats also experienced a downgrade by William Blair from Outperform to Market Perform, citing a decline in market share and increased competitive intensity.
The company’s adjusted EBITDA decreased from $39 million in the previous year to $22 million, amid a challenging live events market. Despite a rise in the marketplace take rate to 16.3%, the company suspended its full-year guidance due to market uncertainties. Vivid Seats has been investing in performance marketing channels to counteract market share losses, though this strategy faced hurdles due to an unexpected Google algorithm change. The company is focusing on operational efficiency and strategic investments, including product enhancements and partnerships, to navigate the current volatile market environment.
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