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Monday, Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) reported potential negative impacts on First Solar Inc . (NASDAQ:FSLR) due to changes in the solar manufacturing landscape. Analysts at the firm highlighted adjustments in their solar manufacturing database, noting a significant increase in year-end 2026 cell capacity forecasts for the United States, which they believe could negatively affect First Solar’s margins. For investors seeking deeper insights into the solar industry landscape and its key players, InvestingPro offers comprehensive analysis through its Pro Research Reports, covering over 1,400 stocks with detailed financial metrics and expert insights.
The updated forecast is based on recent checks indicating a 37% rise in the expected cell capacity by the end of 2026, now anticipated to reach 19.2 gigawatts (GW). This adjustment reflects the identification of three new cell facilities that have reached a final investment decision (FID): Talon PV with 4 GW, Mission Solar with 1 GW, and Boviet Solar with 2 GW. The rapidly evolving solar manufacturing landscape underscores the importance of staying informed with real-time market intelligence.
Concurrently, Wells Fargo has lowered its 2026 solar module capacity forecast by 1.4 GW to 50.7 GW. The firm also reported delays in project timelines, with the Qcells facility’s in-service date (ISD) pushed to the fourth quarter of 2025, and the removal of Solar4America’s 0.5 GW capacity from the forecast following news reports of its shutdown.
The report further addressed the bottleneck in U.S. wafer capacity, with Corning (NYSE:GLW) emerging as the second U.S. facility committed to wafer production, slated to begin in the second half of 2025. Additionally, new module facilities reaching FID were identified, including Solarix in Virginia and Solx in Puerto Rico, while others, such as Solar4America, have been scrapped.
Wells Fargo analysts also discussed the bull and bear cases for First Solar’s average selling price (ASP) premium. The bear case suggests that the increase in U.S. cell capacity, combined with eligible international supply, could meet U.S. demand and reduce First Solar’s ASP premium. The bull case considers potential changes to the Investment Tax Credit ( ITC (NSE:ITC)) as part of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) amendments, which could increase the total benefit for domestic content (domcon) and potentially benefit First Solar even if its market share decreases.
Lastly, the report mentioned the latest anti-dumping/countervailing (AD/CVD) tariffs released by the Department of Commerce on April 21. These tariffs are set at a weighted average of 134%, up from the previous 86%, and could raise spot panel prices by approximately $0.05-0.07 per watt. To track the impact of these developments on solar companies and access exclusive financial analysis, InvestingPro subscribers can leverage advanced screening tools and expert insights, helping them make more informed investment decisions in this dynamic sector.
In other recent news, Enphase Energy (NASDAQ:ENPH) has started shipping its IQ8 Microinverters to Japan, in collaboration with ITOCHU Corporation. This development aligns with Tokyo’s upcoming mandate for rooftop solar installations on new homes by 2025. Enphase’s expansion into Japan is strategic, considering the challenges posed by smaller roof areas, and is supported by a subsidy from the Tokyo metropolitan government. Meanwhile, analysts have made several adjustments to Enphase’s stock targets due to tariff impacts. TD Cowen lowered its price target to $58, maintaining a Buy rating, while RBC Capital Markets adjusted theirs to $54 with a Sector Perform rating, both citing tariff-related cost pressures. BMO Capital Markets also cut its target to $46, retaining a Market Perform rating, and noted additional challenges such as reduced revenue and market share loss. Craig-Hallum reduced its target to $73 but maintained a Buy rating, highlighting ongoing difficulties in the solar sector. These recent developments reflect a complex landscape for Enphase Energy, influenced by both strategic expansions and financial pressures.
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