* Africa's economy could shrink up to 1.1% this year
* Trade could fall 35% from 2019 levels
* Oil producers, tourist destinations seen hardest hit
By Joe Bavier and Giulia Paravicini
JOHANNESBURG/ADDIS ABABA, April 5 (Reuters) - About 20
million jobs are at risk in Africa as the continent's economies
are projected to shrink this year due to the impact of the
coronavirus pandemic, according an African Union (AU) study.
So far, Africa accounts for just a fraction of total cases
of the disease which has infected more than one million people
worldwide, according to a Reuters tally.
But African economies are already facing an impending global
economic downturn, plummeting oil and commodity prices and an
imploding tourism sector.
Before the onset of the pandemic, continent-wide gross
domestic product (GDP) growth had been projected by the African
Development Bank to reach 3.4% this year.
However, in both scenarios modelled by the AU study - seen
by Reuters and entitled "Impact of the coronavirus on the Africa
economy" - GDP will now shrink.
Under what the AU researchers deemed their realistic
scenario, Africa's economy will shrink 0.8%, while the
pessimistic scenario said there would be a 1.1% dip.
Up to 15% for foreign direct investment could disappear.
The impact on employment will be dramatic.
"Nearly 20 million jobs, both in the formal and informal
sectors, are threatened with destruction on the continent if the
situation continues," the analysis said.
African governments could lose up to 20 to 30% of their
fiscal revenue, estimated at 500 billion in 2019, it found.
Exports and imports are meanwhile projected to drop at least
35% from 2019 levels, incurring a loss in the value of trade of
around $270 billion. This at a time when the fight against the
virus' spread will lead to an increase in public spending of at
least $130 billion.
Africa's oil producers, which have seen the value of their
crude exports plunge in past weeks, will be among the worst hit.
Sub-Saharan Africa's biggest oil producers Nigeria and
Angola alone could lose $65 billion in income. African oil
exporters are expected to see their budget deficits double this
year while their economies shrink 3% on average.
African tourist destinations will also suffer.
Africa has in recent years been among the fastest growing
regions in the world for tourism. But with borders now closed to
prevent the disease's spread and entire airlines grounded, the
sector has been almost entirely shut down.
Countries where tourism constitutes a large part of GDP will
see their economies contract by an average of 3.3% this year.
However, Africa's major tourism spots Seychelles, Cape Verde,
Mauritius and Gambia will shrink at least 7%.
"Under the average scenario, the tourism and travel sector
in Africa could lose at least $50 billion due to the covid-19
pandemic and at least 2 million direct and indirect jobs," the
AU study said.
Remittances from Africans living abroad - the continent's
largest financial inflow over the past decade - are unlikely to
cushion the blow.
"With economic activity in the doldrums in many advanced and
emerging market countries, remittances to Africa could
experience significant declines," the analysis found.
(Editing by Angus MacSwan)