Stock market today: Stocks fall as investors rotate out of tech into Jackson Hole
Investing.com - Bank of America has maintained its bearish Brent crude oil price forecast for the second half of 2025, projecting an average of $63.50 per barrel with prices potentially breaking below $60 per barrel.
The bank forecasts an average surplus of 890,000 barrels per day from July 2025 through June 2026, which could result in global oil inventory builds of approximately 100 million barrels during this period. This bearish outlook comes despite better-than-expected demand conditions, as growing OPEC+ supplies are expected to outpace consumption.
BofA analysts note that reduced oil prices are already impacting North American rig counts, with US shale output growth slowing significantly. Non-OPEC+ growth is shifting to South America, a region dominated by multi-year offshore investments, while OPEC+ volumes are expected to increase somewhat in line with recent upward quota revisions.
On the demand side, BofA expects growth of approximately 900,000 barrels per day this year and 1 million barrels per day next year, supported by upwardly revised global GDP growth expectations of 3% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026. Major risks to this outlook include potential economic impacts from ongoing trade wars and possible effects of secondary tariffs on India.
The bank projects that China’s strategic oil storage capacity will tighten over the next six months, eventually pushing the Brent crude market into contango with prompt prices below $60 per barrel, before a potential price recovery above $70 per barrel by summer 2026 driven by easier monetary and fiscal policy, a weaker dollar, OPEC+ discipline, and lower US oil production.
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