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On Tuesday, China announced new tariffs on US imports, including a 15% tariff on coal, in response to the 10% tariffs imposed by the United States on Chinese goods. Citi analysts have assessed the potential impact of these tariffs on the coal trade between the two countries.
According to Citi’s analysis, the United States exported approximately 46.3 million tons (Mt) of thermal coal in 2024, with about 3.4Mt, or 7%, going to China.
In the global context, this represents a mere 0.3% of the estimated 1,146Mt of thermal coal traded worldwide that year. India remains the largest recipient of US thermal coal, followed by significant markets like Japan, Korea, Europe, and Africa.
For metallurgical coal, which is used in steelmaking, the US exported around 50.2Mt in 2024, with China accounting for 21% or 10.7Mt of these exports. This figure represents 2.8% of the estimated global metallurgical coal trade of 380Mt. Other major destinations for US metallurgical coal include India, Europe, Brazil, Japan, and Korea.
China’s dependency on US coal varies between the two types. It is relatively independent when it comes to thermal coal, with US imports making up only 0.8% of China’s total thermal coal imports of 432.8Mt in 2024.
The country relies more on Indonesia, Australia, Russia, and Mongolia for its thermal coal needs. In contrast, the US is a more significant supplier of metallurgical coal to China, contributing 9% of the total 119Mt imported by China in 2024.
The Citi analysts predict that the impact of China’s import tariffs on coal prices is likely to be minimal or modest, given the current ample supply in both coal markets.
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