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Investing.com -- Deutsche Bank has released its 2026 outlook for global copper, highlighting a tightening supply environment as industry consolidation accelerates.
The brokerage forecasts that mine supply will decline in 2025 and rise only about 1% in 2026, a dynamic that underlines a market in deficit.
Deutsche Bank has lifted its 2026 copper price forecast to $10,600 per tonne, with peak prices projected to exceed $11,000 per tonne in the first half of the year.
The brokerage notes that severe supply disruptions have pushed copper prices to near-record levels.
Despite a marked slowdown in Chinese demand in the second half of 2025 and concerns over a potential AI-driven investment bubble, Deutsche Bank emphasizes that, barring a global economic slowdown, an incentive-based pricing regime is likely to continue.
The brokerage points to global electricity demand, which outpaced GDP growth in 2024, as a key driver that should sustain healthy expansion in copper demand through electrification and digitalization trends.
Deutsche Bank also highlighted the pace of new copper project approvals, noting it is expected to remain below the level required to meet demand in 2026. The report provides detailed analysis of mine supply, demand drivers, future projects, and company positioning.
On individual copper stocks, Deutsche Bank issued updated recommendations and target prices. For Antofagasta Plc, the brokerage maintained a “hold” rating and raised the target from 2,300p to 2,400p.
Boliden AB was upgraded from “hold” to “buy,” with the target increased from SEK450 to SEK490.
Freeport-McMoRan retained a “buy” rating, with the target rising from $45 to $47. First Quantum was lowered from “buy” to “hold,” with a target adjustment from CAD35 to CAD33.
Lundin Mining’s European listing remained at “hold,” with the target raised from SEK142 to SEK150, while the Canadian listing also stayed at “hold” with the target lifted from CAD20 to CAD22. Teck maintained a “buy” rating, with a target increase from $45 to $46.