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Investing.com -- The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its oil-demand growth estimates for the last quarter of the previous year and the first quarter of this year to approximately 1.2 million barrels a day, down from previous projections.
The agency now forecasts global demand to increase by 1.03 million barrels a day, down from the earlier estimate of 1.1 million barrels a day, with average daily demand reaching 103.9 million barrels. This is a result of worsening macroeconomic conditions due to global trade tensions.
These projections from the IEA are notably lower than those of OPEC, which anticipates demand to rise by 1.45 million barrels a day.
Today’s report arrives as Brent Oil Futures trade around $71 a barrel, while the U.S. oil gauge, Crude Oil WTI Futures, are exchanging hands near $67 a barrel.
The IEA also predicts that global oil supply will continue to surpass demand. The agency now anticipates an excess of around 600,000 barrels a day, which is a higher estimate than last month.
Furthermore, if OPEC+ decides to increase output beyond April and compliance among over-producing members remains lax, an extra 400,000 barrels a day could be added to the market.
The Paris-based agency expressed concerns about the impact of new U.S. tariffs on global trade and economic growth. The agency noted that the unpredictable nature of these tariffs, along with the potential for retaliation and escalation, has led to increased uncertainty.
The IEA suggested that a scenario of "stagflation", characterized by sluggish growth and rising prices that complicate attempts by policymakers to intervene, is likely to put pressure on overall oil-demand growth.
The total oil supply is projected to average 104.5 million barrels a day in 2025, with non-OPEC+ producers expected to contribute an additional 1.5 million barrels a day of supply.