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GLOBAL MARKETS-Bullet dodged? Markets bet global recession averted

Published 05/11/2019, 10:51
Updated 05/11/2019, 10:55
© Reuters.  GLOBAL MARKETS-Bullet dodged? Markets bet global recession averted
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* U.S., China seen nearing truce in trade war

* Strong U.S. jobs data underpin optimism on economy

* Yuan at highest since mid-August after PBOC cut

* European shares steady at 21-month high

* Bond yields rising globally as recession fears recede

* World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

* Asian stock markets: https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4

By Marc Jones

LONDON, Nov 5 (Reuters) - World shares climbed back towards

record highs on Tuesday, as hopes that Washington may roll back

some of the tariffs it has imposed on Chinese imports rekindled

optimism on the global economic outlook.

A year-end rally looked to be building. Wall Street is on

course for its best year since 2013, with gains of more than

20%, and MSCI's all-country index just 1.5% shy of its record

peak after advancing for a ninth day in 10.

Europe's main markets saw a comparatively subdued start,

after reaching a 21-month high on Monday .EU , but Asia raced

to its highest in six-months, China's yuan climbed above 7 per

dollar and global bond yields were rising again.

Hopes of a trade truce between the United States and China

this month fuelled the optimism, with some more details being

filled in on what's expected to be a "phase one" agreement.

As part of this agreement, China is pushing U.S. President

Donald Trump to remove more tariffs imposed in September,

according to overnight reports. Beijing and Washington spoke of

progress in the talks and U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross

said licenses for U.S. companies to sell components to China's

telecoms giant Huawei will come "very shortly".

"The big picture is that everyone is now setting themselves

up for the strong rebound case (for the global economy)," said

Peter Garnry, Saxo Bank's head of global equities . "And with

the flood gates open for monetary policy, assets are just

flying, especially equities."

Global readings of the October manufacturing business

surveys showed the aggregate ticked up for the third month in a

row last month to show an expansion in factory activity.

Forward-looking indicators from the survey, such as the new-

orders component, moved into positive territory for the first

time since April, according to JPMorgan.

It all helped ease concern in bond markets about recession

risks facing the global economy, sparking a selloff across major

bond markets.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose 4 basis points to

around 1.83% US10YT=RR and the U.S. yield curve -- measuring

the gap between two- and 10-year yields -- was at its steepest

in three months US2US10=TWEB .

In Europe, 10-year yields on safe-haven German Bunds also

climbed to their highest since July DE10YT=RR .

In Asia, the mood was also helped by the People's Bank of

China cut in its a medium-term lending rate, the first since

early 2016. It was only a token 5 basis points to 3.25%, but

analysts said it underscored Beijing's ongoing desire to support

its economy.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan

.MIAPJ0000PUS gained 0.5% to reach levels last seen in early

May. It was led by gains in Chinese shares .CSI300 , which

jumped 1.3% to their highest levels since late April.

Taiwanese shares .TWII gained 0.4% to near three-decade

highs and Japan's Nikkei .N225 rose 1.34% to a one-year peak

after a market holiday on Monday.

That followed record closing highs for the U.S. S&P 500, Dow

Jones and Nasdaq and after the Financial Times had reported that

the U.S was considering rolling back levies on $112 billion of

Chinese imports, which were introduced at a 15% rate on Sept. 1.

China is pushing U.S. President Donald Trump to remove more

tariffs as part of a U.S.-China trade deal, expected to be

signed later this month, people familiar with the negotiations

said on Monday. "There may have been some expectations that the U.S. may

postpone the remaining tariffs, which are due to kick in on Dec.

15. But if it goes further by rolling back existing tariffs,

that would not only benefit the economy but would also make the

truce seem more permanent," said Yukino Yamada, senior

strategist at Daiwa Securities.

The next focus on the U.S. economic front is a U.S.

non-manufacturing survey due later on Tuesday, with economists

expecting a rebound in business sentiment from a three-year low.

Saxo Bank's Garnry said a better-than-expected reading could

fire markets higher.

YUAN RECLAIMS KEY LEVEL

In the currency market, the dollar gained 0.2% on the yen to

108.80 JPY= , extending its recovery from the 107.89 touched on

Friday.

Trade optimism kept the Chinese yuan near its highest levels

since mid-August, after the onshore yuan posted its strongest

close since Aug. 2. CNY=CFXS . The euro was little changed at $1.1126 EUR= , off last

week's high of $1.1175. The Australian dollar gained 0.2% to

$0.6900 AUD=D4 on the trade hopes and after the nation's

central bank held interest rates steady after three cuts this

year.

Oil prices gained, staying near their highest since late

September, buoyed by an improved outlook for crude demand as

better-than-expected U.S. jobs growth added to the hopes for a

U.S.-China trade deal.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 traded at

$56.62 per barrel, up 0.14% after reaching a six-week high of

$57.43 on Monday. International benchmark Brent LCOc1 gained

0.23% to $62.27 per barrel.

Rising economic optimism dented gold, which fell 0.47% to

$1,503 per ounce XAU= .

U.S. non-manufacturers ISM index https://tmsnrt.rs/2JMLMjB

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