Oil prices bounce off lows; Chinese import data, tariffs exemption help

Investing.com -- Oil prices rose Monday, bouncing from recent lows after strong import data from China, but the ongoing Sino-U.S. trade conflict and forecasts of weaker demand continued to weigh. 

At 08:50 ET (12:50 GMT), Brent oil futures expiring in June rose 1.3% to $65.61 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 1.4% to $62.34 a barrel. 

China crude imports rise 

Sentiment was boosted Monday after data showed that China’s crude oil imports in March rebounded sharply from the previous two months and were up nearly 5% from a year earlier.

This pointed to the return of demand for crude from the world’s largest importer after a period of economic regression.

Easing of trade tensions 

Also helping the tone was the news that the White House had exempted electronics imports from China from U.S. President Donald Trump’s steep “reciprocal” tariffs - amounting to 145% - against the country. 

However, this easing of tensions between the two economic giants may only be temporary, with Trump saying his administration was preparing to impose separate tariffs on electronics in the coming months. Trump also said that electronics imports still faced his universal 10% tariff, and a 20% duty against China linked to fentanyl. 

China had struck back last week against Trump’s tariffs with a 125% duty on American goods, marking a major escalation in a trade war between the world’s largest economies. 

Bouncing off four-year lows 

Oil prices were trading close to four-year lows hit last week, with Brent and WTI losing about $10 a barrel since the start of the month, as concerns over sluggish demand and trade-related disruptions battered commodity markets.

The prospect of increased economic pressure on top oil importer China also dented oil prices, as Beijing engaged in a bitter trade war with the United States. 

Goldman Sachs expects oil prices to decline through the end of this year and next year because of the rising risk of a recession and higher supply from the OPEC+ group.

The bank expects Brent and WTI oil prices to edge down, averaging $63 and $59 a barrel, respectively, for the remainder of 2025, and $58 and $55 in 2026.

The bank has cut its global demand growth forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2026 by 900,000 barrels-per-day since mid-March due to an escalating trade war between the U.S. and China.

Trump’s energy secretary says average energy prices to be lower

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said over the weekend that energy prices were expected to be lower on average under Trump, with oil prices in particular expected to fall. 

Trump has targeted lower energy prices as part of his agenda to curb inflation. The U.S. President was seen repeatedly calling on Saudi Arabia and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to increase production and bring prices lower - a call they only partially complied with. More cues from the OPEC are due this week from a monthly oil report.  

Trump has also flagged plans to ramp up U.S. energy production- a trend that could vastly increase oil supply in the coming years. But markets see no near-term increase to supply from this trend, given the time and investment required to increase U.S. energy infrastructure. 

(Ambar Warrick contributed to this article.)