Oil prices fall after IEA cuts demand growth forecast; tariff news in focus

Investing.com– Oil prices fell Tuesday after the International Energy Agency cut its oil demand forecast, although losses have been curbed by a potential pause of U.S. tariffs on the auto sector.

At 09:00 ET (13:00 GMT), Brent Oil Futures expiring in June slipped 0.8% to $64.37 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate WTI crude futures dropped 0.8% to $61.04 per barrel.

IEA cuts global oil demand growth

The IEA cut its forecasts earlier Tuesday for global oil demand growth to 730,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year from 1.03 million bpd, and to 690,000 bpd next year, citing escalating trade tensions.

On Monday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, in its monthly report, also revised its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 lower, reducing it by 150,000 bpd to 1.30 million bpd. 

This adjustment reflected weaker-than-expected first-quarter data and the impact of new U.S. trade tariffs, prompting OPEC to also lower its projections for global economic growth for both 2025 and 2026. 

Worries about the extent of global growth this year, especially in the wake of the trade war instigated by the new Trump administration, have plagued the crude market for most of this year.

Both crude contracts hit four-year lows last week. 

Trump indicates potential pause on auto tariffs

There has been some relief after U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday indicated potential exemptions from the 25% tariffs on foreign vehicle imports, particularly from countries like Mexico and Canada. 

Before this, the administration announced exclusions for certain electronics, including smartphones and laptops, primarily from China. 

These developments have eased some market concerns over escalating trade tensions.

That said, investors remain cautious as Trump’s administration was moving forward with plans to potentially impose tariffs on semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports. The investigation into these tariffs was announced Monday through notices posted to the Federal Register by the Commerce Department.

China crude imports jump in March; US-Iran talks in focus

In China, March crude oil imports saw a sharp rebound, driven by increased purchases of Iranian and Russian oil ahead of anticipated U.S. sanctions. 

While China’s key commodity imports were weak in the first quarter of 2025, the March uptick provided some optimism. 

Meanwhile, indirect talks between the U.S. and Iran commenced on April 12 in Muscat, Oman, aiming to reach a nuclear peace agreement.

The outcome of these talks could influence the trajectory of U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil exports.

“The market is digesting fast-moving policy developments on the tariff front, while balancing them with nuclear talks between the US and Iran. Clearly, the market is more focused on tariffs and what they mean for oil demand,” ING analysts said in a note.

(Ayushman Ojha contributed to this article.)