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Investing.com--Oil prices edged higher Monday, helped by upbeat Chinese manufacturing data, while traders studied the efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war and repercussions from U.S. tariffs.
At 08:30 ET (13:30 GMT), Brent oil futures expiring in May rose 0.6% to $73.24 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 0.5% to $70.15 a barrel.
Oil prices were nursing six straight weeks of losses, as concerns over increased U.S. trade tariffs, which could potentially disrupt the global economy and hurt demand, battered crude markets.
Chinese data boosts sentiment
Sentiment has been boosted Monday by data showing Chinese manufacturing activity grew more than expected to a three-month high in February on the back of increased production and new orders, private purchasing managers index (PMI) data showed on Monday.
The Caixin manufacturing PMI came in at 50.8 in February, a three-month high, above expectations of 50.4 and the prior month’s reading of 50.1.
A reading above 50 signals expansion, and February’s increase—its largest since November—marks the fifth consecutive month of growth.
The Caixin data comes days after the release of the government PMI, which showed the manufacturing sector grew more than expected in February.
China is the world’s largest importer of crude, and worries over lackluster economic growth has weighed on the oil markets for some time.
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire in question
Doubts emerged over whether the U.S. will be able to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, especially after Trump and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy had a heated meeting at the White House over the weekend, which resulted in Zelenskiy leaving without signing a planned mineral supply deal.
Zelenskiy received a show of support from European leaders on Sunday, especially with regards to defense supplies to Ukraine - suggesting that an end to the war may not be close.
The weekend’s developments pushed up bets that a Russia-Ukraine peace treaty will take longer than initially touted by Trump, and saw traders attach a greater risk premium to crude.
The Russia-Ukraine war - which began in early-2022 - disrupted global oil supplies and saw Russia slapped with strict sanctions that restricted its oil sales even further.
Israel-Hamas tensions boost oil risk premium
Oil’s risk premium was also buoyed by renewed signs of strain between Israel and Hamas over a recently signed ceasefire.
Israel was seen blocking all aid flowing into Gaza, after Hamas rejected a temporary extension to their truce, instead calling for an agreement marking a permanent end to the war.
Israel’s move and Hamas’ comments highlighted the fragile nature of their recent ceasefire, raising the prospect of renewed hostilities between the two.
While Hamas had released one round of hostages under the first ceasefire, talks over the release of more hostages, as demanded by Israel, have stalled. The Palestinian militant group has demanded more concessions from Israel.
Markets brace for U.S. tariffs
Markets are also bracing for U.S. tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico to be imposed on Tuesday. China faces an additional 10% tariff, following a similar amount imposed last month.
Potential tariffs on Canada and Mexico will have great market impact, as these two countries are the largest suppliers of crude oil to the US. In 2024, 62% of US crude imports came from Canada, while 7% originated from Mexico.
"Tariffs would likely hurt Canadian producers. They have little flexibility to send oil to other countries, given that the bulk of pipeline infrastructure is directed towards the U.S. Canadian oil producers will likely have to accept larger discounts relative to WTI for their crude oil if tariffs go ahead. Mexico, by contrast, has more flexibility; U.S. tariffs on Mexico will likely see crude redirected to other markets," analysts at ING said, in a note.
(Ambar Warrick contributed to this article.)