Oil prices steady near highs; geopolitical tensions outweigh economic worries

Investing.com-- Oil prices steadied near an over one-month high on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to bomb Iran, ramping up geopolitical tensions and drawing a larger risk premium for crude. 

At 06:55 ET (11:55 GMT), Brent oil futures expiring in June fell 0.1% to $74.71 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures slipped 0.1% to $71.42 a barrel. 

Uncertainty over Russia-Ukraine peace talks also underpinned oil, as Trump threatened more sanctions on Moscow’s oil industry if a deal was not reached. 

Middle east geopolitics, supply jitters underpin crude 

Oil was sitting on strong gains over the past week as heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine saw traders price in a greater chance of supply disruptions.

Reports showed Israel had launched strikes on Beirut on Tuesday, just weeks after a ceasefire with Hamas fell through.

Tuesday’s strikes came after Trump over the weekend threatened to bomb Iran if Tehran did not agree to a new nuclear deal, drawing a sharp rebuke and threats of retaliation from Iranian officials. 

Talks between Russia and Ukraine appeared to show little progress, with Moscow seen issuing a draft for more troops to fight in the war. Trump also threatened to impose more sanctions on Russian oil if Moscow delayed signing a ceasefire.

"Russia exports around 7.4m b/d of crude oil and refined products, while Iran exports around 1.4m b/d of crude oil. This tool could be very effective in persuading buyers to shun the targeted oil, with the impact on the buying country’s economy potentially far outweighing the benefits of buying discounted crude oil. The key buyers of Russian crude oil are China and India, whose top export markets are the US. However, taking such action, particularly against Russia, would make it harder for Trump to lower oil prices, as promised. Instead, it would push prices much higher," said analysts at ING, in a note.

The geopolitical ructions and sanction threats ramped up concerns over more potential supply disruptions in oil markets, and drew in a greater risk premium for crude. 

Trump tariffs loom, recession jitters limit oil upside

But despite oil’s big run-up over the past week, greater gains were limited by persistent concerns over the economic impact of Trump’s tariffs.

Trump is set to announce his plans for reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday, and is also expected to impose tariffs on several key industries.

Recent reports said Trump will target a broader set of countries and will also aim to impose higher tariffs with fewer exceptions- a move that could destabilize global trade and undermine economic growth.

Oil markets fear that slowing growth and trade disruptions will dent oil demand in the coming months. 

(Ambar Warrick contributed to this article.)