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Investing.com - The flow of copper into the U.S. ahead of the imposition of possible tariffs has underpinned a jump in prices of the red metal so far this year, according to analysts at RBC Capital Markets.
In a note to clients dated on Wednesday, the analysts said copper prices on U.S.-based COMEX were trading up by around 11% since the start of 2025, and at a premium to other global markets for the metal.
North American copper equities have also jumped by roughly 9% year-to-date, the brokerage noted, highlighting Capstone Mining Corp (TSX:CS) and HudBay Minerals (NYSE:HBM) as their "favorite" stock ideas in the sector.
Supporting this push higher in copper prices has been an announcement by U.S. President Donald Trump in February of an investigation into potential new tariffs on imports of copper, a metal seen as vital in the manufacturing of everything from electric cars to power grids.
The probe -- as well as a chance to capture elevated premiums -- have launched a flood of copper shipments into the U.S., with U.S. government data cited by Reuters showing that imports of the metal into the country amounted to more than 123,000 tons in March. In February and January, the figure stood at 58,000 tons and 76,000 tons, respectively.
But the RBC strategists led by Sam Crittenden flagged signs of weakening in both demand and supply of copper, adding that, should Trump choose not to go ahead with tariffs on the metal, there could be a "negative catalyst" for prices.
Meanwhile, an "air pocket of demand" stemming from a contraction in Chinese manufacturing activity in May presents a "near term risk" for copper prices, the RBC analysts argued. A continuation in Trump’s aggressive trade agenda, as well as a summer slowdown in construction, may also dent the metal, they said.
"The path beyond the next few months depends on how global trade evolves but any positive developments between China and the U.S. would point to a better demand outlook into 2026," the analysts wrote.
Trump and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping are reportedly set to hold discussions this week, which investors are hoping to could ratchet down trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies.