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Investing.com -- Roth Capital Partners said U.S. natural gas stocks are facing renewed pressure as oversupply builds, with prices expected to weaken through 2026, in a note dated Monday.
The brokerage downgraded several gas-focused exploration and production companies, citing forecasts that Henry Hub prices will fall below futures expectations.
Production has risen sharply in recent months, with volumes climbing to 109-110 billion cubic feet per day from spring levels of 106-108 Bcf/d.
That increase has pushed the market from balanced conditions to oversupply. Domestic storage now sits 196 billion cubic feet above the five-year average, and Roth expects the surplus to expand as the shoulder season approaches.
The brokerage projects 2026 supply growth of 2.5 Bcf/d, nearly matching expected demand growth of 2.75 Bcf/d. Despite strong consumption trends, including liquefied natural gas exports and power generation, Roth sees the market remaining oversupplied.
Its model points to a Henry Hub average of $3.25 per million British thermal units in 2026, below the current futures curve near $3.85.
As a result, Roth cut its ratings on Antero Resources, EQT, EXE, CNX Resources Corp and Range Resources to “neutral” from “buy,” and lowered Comstock Resources to “sell” from “neutral.”
The brokerage said gas equities are likely to remain in a trading range until supply growth slows.
“Supply ruins the party,” the analysts said, pointing to producers’ continued plans to increase volumes, supported by a higher futures strip.
While demand is on track for one of the strongest growth years in decades, rising by 4.5 Bcf/d in 2025, the supply trajectory is expected to keep prices capped.
The brokerage also noted that the global LNG market could become oversupplied by 2027 as new capacity comes online in Qatar, Australia, Mexico and Africa, potentially curbing U.S. export demand.
Roth’s forecast shows a modest 0.4 Bcf/d surplus in 2026, suggesting that absent a colder-than-expected winter or a slowdown in drilling, gas prices will struggle to reach the $4 mark.
“We expect domestic gas supply to grow to 110-111 Bcfgpd or more in 2026 even with less associated gas in a weaker oil market, which we think will be too high and will lead to gas prices closer to $3.25 per mmbtu range next year,” the brokerage said.