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Investing.com -- UBS expects Brent crude oil prices to remain in the upper half of the $60–$70 per barrel range in the near term, supported by a tight market reflected in the downward-sloping futures curve.
Prices are currently underpinned by low OECD oil inventories, though UBS analysts anticipate demand will peak in August before easing slightly in the months ahead.
On the supply side, South American output is rising. Brazil has reached a new record high in production, while the U.S. has granted Chevron (NYSE:CVX) a license to resume operations in Venezuela, reducing the risk of further supply declines there.
The combination of slowing demand and expanding supply is expected to drive larger inventory builds in early 2026.
Consequently, UBS forecasts Brent crude will trend toward the lower end of the $60–$70 range by year-end.
This outlook is reinforced by data from the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI), which flags the effect of extreme heat on Middle Eastern oil demand.
In Saudi Arabia, direct crude use rose by 185,000 barrels per day in June, reaching 674,000 barrels per day.
This seasonal increase has kept Saudi exports steady, even as some OPEC+ production cuts have been unwound, allowing the Kingdom (TADAWUL:4280) to raise output.
UBS’s forecast sees the benchmark at $62 by December 2025 and March 2026, before edging higher to $65 by mid-2026.