* Oil demand this year to fall by 9.46 million bpd
* OPEC pumps extra 760,000 bpd in August as OPEC+ supply cut
eased
* Cuts forecast demand for OPEC crude in 2020, 2021
(Adds detail)
By Alex Lawler
LONDON, Sept 14 (Reuters) - World oil demand will fall more
steeply in 2020 than previously forecast due to the coronavirus
and recover more slowly than expected next year, OPEC said on
Monday, potentially making it harder for the group and its
allies to support the market.
World oil demand will tumble by 9.46 million barrels per day
(bpd) this year, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries said in a monthly report, more than the 9.06 million
bpd decline expected a month ago.
Oil prices have collapsed as the coronavirus crisis has
curtailed travel and economic activity. While some countries
have eased lockdowns, allowing demand to recover, a rising
number of new cases and higher oil output have weighed on
prices.
"Risks remain elevated and tilted to the downside,
particularly related to the development of COVID-19 infection
cases as well as possible cures," OPEC said of the 2021 outlook.
"Increased usage of teleworking and distance conferencing is
estimated to limit transportation fuels from fully recovering to
2019 levels."
That means demand will rebound more slowly than expected
next year. OPEC sees consumption rising in 2021 by 6.62 million
bpd, 370,00 bpd less than expected last month.
Oil stocks have built up due to the demand collapse. OPEC
said inventories in developed nations fell by 4.5 million
barrels in July but stood 260.6 million barrels above the
five-year average, a yardstick that OPEC before the pandemic saw
as a desirable level.
Crude LCOc1 was trading below $40 a barrel on Monday after
the report was released, below levels that many OPEC members
need to balance their budgets. Prices have fallen by almost 15%
so far this month.
HIGHER SUPPLY
To tackle the drop in demand, OPEC and its allies, known as
OPEC+, agreed to a record supply cut of 9.7 million bpd that
started on May 1, while the United States and other nations said
they would pump less.
In the report, OPEC said its output rose by 760,000 bpd to
24.05 million bpd in August, as the 9.7 million bpd cut tapered
to a reduction of 7.7 million bpd from Aug. 1.
That amounted to 103% compliance with the pledges, according
to a Reuters calculation - up from July's figure of 97%.
A monitoring panel of OPEC+ ministers meets on Thursday to
discuss the market. Some delegates have voiced concern about the
drop in prices this month although there are, as yet, no signs
that the group is planning to tweak the supply pact.
The report also forecast demand for OPEC crude will be lower
than expected this year and next, as supply increases outside
the group and because of the reduced global demand outlook.
OPEC said demand for its crude this year will average 22.6
million bpd, down 700,000 bpd from the previous forecast. That
suggests the market will be in surplus should OPEC keep pumping
at August's rate. Next year's forecast was cut by 1.1 million
bpd.
(Editing by Jason Neely, Susan Fenton and David Evans)