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By Noah Browning
LONDON, June 16 (Reuters) - Oil demand is recovering from
the greatest fall in its history in 2020, the International
Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday, but less flying due to
coronavirus fears means the world will not return to
pre-pandemic demand levels before 2022.
"Our first forecast for 2021 as a whole shows demand growing
by 5.7 million barrels per day (bpd), which, at 97.4 million
bpd, will be 2.4 million bpd below the 2019 level," the IEA said
in its monthly report.
"Reduced jet and kerosene deliveries will impact total oil
demand until at least 2022 ... the aviation industry is facing
an existential crisis", the Paris-based IEA said.
The IEA said air travel began to rise slightly in the middle
of May and accelerated in June as economic lockdowns aimed at
containing the virus were eased, but was still down by over 70%
from 2019 levels.
The IEA raised its forecast for 2020 oil demand by nearly
500,000 bpd due to stronger than expected imports in Asia.
"China's strong exit from lockdown measures has seen demand
in April almost back to year-ago levels. We have also seen a
strong rebound in India in May, although demand is still well
below year-ago levels."
Citing a plunge in global oil supply by 11.8 million bpd in
May, the IEA said the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries and its allies including Russia - a grouping known as
OPEC+ - had reduced their output by 9.4 million bpd.
Output from countries outside the deal was down 4.5 million
bpd since the start of this year, the IEA added, noting that
U.S. output was set to fall 900,000 bpd in 2020 and another
300,000 barrels next year unless oil price rises encourage new
shale oil investments.
"If recent trends in production are maintained and demand
does recover, the market will be on a more stable footing by the
end of the second half, the IEA said.
"However we should not underestimate the enormous
uncertainties."
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Supply-demand balance https://tmsnrt.rs/2YBkZ0o
Global oil supply, supply response https://tmsnrt.rs/3dd7A49
Global passenger flights/OECD mobility https://tmsnrt.rs/2AxNkNk
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