Ameren Q1 2025 slides: EPS rises on infrastructure investments, data center growth

Ameren Corporation (NYSE:AEE) reported first quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of $1.07 per share, up 4.9% from $1.02 in the same period last year, according to presentation slides released on May 2. The utility reaffirmed its full-year 2025 earnings guidance of $4.85 to $5.05 per share as it continues executing its long-term growth strategy.

Quarterly Performance Highlights

Ameren’s earnings growth was primarily driven by infrastructure investments across its business segments and higher retail sales in Missouri. The company invested over $1 billion in capital expenditures during the first quarter, with the majority allocated to its transmission business.

"We remain focused on safely executing our strategic plan," said Marty Lyons, Chairman, President, and CEO of Ameren Corp ., highlighting the company’s continued infrastructure investments, regulatory achievements, and operational performance.

As shown in the following earnings breakdown chart, Ameren Transmission contributed $0.16 per share (up from $0.13), while Ameren Illinois Natural Gas added $0.05 (up from $0.01). These gains were partially offset by Ameren Missouri’s contribution of $0.33 (down from $0.40) and Ameren Parent’s result of -$0.05 (down from $0.27):

The company’s first quarter results show continued momentum following its mixed fourth quarter 2024 performance, when Ameren posted EPS of $0.77 (below forecasts) but exceeded revenue expectations with $1.94 billion.

Strategic Growth Initiatives

Data center expansion represents a significant growth opportunity for Ameren, with the company projecting approximately 5.5% compound annual sales growth from 2025-2029, primarily driven by these high-energy customers. The utility has already secured construction agreements for approximately 2.3 gigawatts of data center load growth.

This demand growth is illustrated in the following chart from Ameren’s presentation:

To meet this increasing demand, Ameren Missouri is developing new generation facilities. The company detailed four major projects in progress, including solar facilities at Vandalia and Bowling Green (expected online in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 respectively), the Split Rail solar project (mid-2026), and the Castle Bluff simple-cycle gas plant (Q4 2027).

Ameren is also participating in MISO’s Long-Range Transmission Planning, with Tranche 2.1 projects estimated at $21.8 billion. The company expects Tranche 2.2 project identification to commence in December 2025, potentially creating additional investment opportunities.

Financial Outlook and Guidance

Ameren outlined a robust $63 billion pipeline of regulated infrastructure investments planned for 2025-2034, with $26.3 billion allocated for the 2025-2029 period. This investment strategy is expected to drive significant rate base growth across all business segments.

The company’s five-year investment plan is broken down as follows:

These investments are projected to drive a 9.2% compound annual growth rate in Ameren’s regulated infrastructure rate base from 2024 to 2029, supporting the company’s long-term earnings growth target of 6-8%.

As shown in the following chart, rate base growth varies by segment, with Ameren Illinois Natural Gas leading at 11.3% CAGR:

To support this growth, Ameren expects to issue approximately $600 million in equity in 2025, with recent debt financing transactions including issuances by Ameren Illinois ($350 million), Ameren Corporation ($750 million), and Ameren Missouri ($500 million).

Regulatory Developments

Ameren highlighted several positive regulatory outcomes that support its growth strategy. In April 2025, the Missouri Public Service Commission approved a constructive settlement for a $355 million annual revenue increase in Ameren Missouri’s electric rate review.

Additionally, Missouri’s governor signed Senate Bill 4, a comprehensive energy bill that includes Plant-In-Service-Accounting modifications, integrated resource planning changes, and future test year provisions for natural gas utilities.

In Illinois, Ameren requested a $61 million reconciliation adjustment to its 2024 electric distribution revenue requirement on April 29, 2025. The company also filed for a $140 million annual base rate increase for its Illinois natural gas distribution business in January 2025, with a decision expected later this year.

Michael Moehn, Senior Executive Vice President and CFO, emphasized the company’s financial discipline: "We expect to deliver strong earnings growth in 2025 with guidance in a range of $4.85 to $5.05 per diluted share. We remain well-positioned for future growth with our strong long-term outlook."

Ameren’s stock closed at $98.09 on May 1, 2025, down 1.16% for the session, but has shown resilience by trading near its 52-week high of $104.10. The company continues to maintain its dividend policy, expecting future dividends to grow in line with long-term EPS growth and targeting a payout ratio between 55% and 65%.

Full presentation:

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