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Introduction & Market Context
Bavarian Nordic (CPH:CSE:BAVA) reported strong second-quarter results on August 22, 2025, with revenue growth of 16% year-over-year, continuing the momentum seen in Q1. The company’s shares have remained relatively stable following the announcement of a takeover offer from Nordic Capital and Permira, trading at 238.6 DKK, up slightly by 0.17% during the session.
The vaccine manufacturer has demonstrated consistent growth across its key business segments while making significant progress with its Chikungunya vaccine, which has now been approved in multiple markets. This performance comes amid increasing global health concerns regarding Chikungunya outbreaks, particularly in Europe.
Quarterly Performance Highlights
Bavarian Nordic reported Q2 2025 revenue of 1,652 million DKK, representing a 16% increase compared to the same period last year. For the first half of 2025, revenue reached 2,998 million DKK, marking a 33% year-over-year growth. The company maintained a strong EBITDA margin of 32% for the first half of the year.
As shown in the following comprehensive revenue breakdown:
The growth was driven by both the Travel Health and Public Preparedness segments. Travel Health performed particularly well with rabies vaccines showing 26% growth in Q2, although TBE (tick-borne encephalitis) vaccines experienced a 16% decline in the quarter. Overall, the Travel Health segment generated 705 million DKK in Q2 2025, up from 672 million DKK in Q2 2024.
The detailed breakdown of Travel Health performance demonstrates the continued strength of this segment:
The Public Preparedness segment showed even stronger growth, with Q2 2025 revenue of 917 million DKK compared to 680 million DKK in Q2 2024, representing a 35% increase. This growth was supported by significant government orders, including a 143.6 million USD order from the U.S. government in Q2 and a 200+ million DKK contract in July for smallpox/mpox vaccines to a European country.
The Public Preparedness segment’s performance is illustrated in the following chart:
Strategic Initiatives
A key strategic focus for Bavarian Nordic has been the rollout of its Chikungunya vaccine, Vimkunya. Following U.S. approval in February 2025 and launch in March, the vaccine has now been approved in the European Union and the United Kingdom (TADAWUL:4280). The company has already launched the vaccine in Germany and France, with the UK launch planned for the second half of 2025.
The progress of the Chikungunya vaccine program is detailed in this slide:
The strategic importance of the Chikungunya vaccine is underscored by the increasing global presence of the virus. Locally-acquired cases have been reported in multiple regions, with particular concern in Europe where France has reported 115 cases across 23 clusters, and Italy has identified 7 cases across 5 clusters as of August 18, 2025.
The European Chikungunya situation is illustrated in this map:
Bavarian Nordic also completed the sale of its Priority Review Voucher in July, which will generate a one-off income of 810 million DKK to be recognized in Q3 2025, further strengthening the company’s financial position.
Commercial Performance & Financial Analysis
The company’s commercial performance shows growth across most product categories. The detailed breakdown reveals the strong contribution from both Public Preparedness and Travel Health segments:
From a financial perspective, Bavarian Nordic maintained solid profitability metrics despite increased investments in R&D and SG&A. The company reported a gross margin of 65% for Q2 2025 and an EBITDA of 536 million DKK for the quarter, representing an EBITDA margin of 32%.
The key financial metrics for Q2 and H1 2025 are presented in this table:
Forward-Looking Statements
Based on the strong first-half performance, Bavarian Nordic has refined its full-year 2025 outlook. The company now expects revenue between 6,000 and 6,600 million DKK, narrowed from the previous guidance of 5,700 to 6,700 million DKK. The EBITDA margin before special items is maintained at 26-30%, while the EBITDA margin including the net income from the PRV sale is expected to reach 40-42%.
The revenue is expected to be distributed across segments as follows: Public Preparedness (3,100-3,700 million DKK), Travel Health (approximately 2,750 million DKK), and Other Income (approximately 150 million DKK).
The refined outlook for 2025 is presented in this slide:
Takeover Offer Details
In a significant development, Bavarian Nordic announced that it has received a takeover offer from Innosera, a company backed by Nordic Capital and Permira. The offer price is 233 DKK per share, representing a premium of 55% to the closing price on August 15, 2025, and a 30% premium to the 3-month volume-weighted average price.
The Board of Directors has unanimously recommended that shareholders accept the offer. Following the publication of the offer document, expected in early September, there will be a 4-week offer period. The transaction is anticipated to be completed in Q4 2025, subject to regulatory approvals and other customary conditions.
The timeline and details of the takeover offer are outlined in this slide:
The takeover offer comes at a time when Bavarian Nordic has demonstrated strong growth and has successfully expanded its vaccine portfolio, particularly with the recent approvals and launches of its Chikungunya vaccine. The offer appears to recognize the company’s strengthened market position and future growth potential in both the travel health and public preparedness segments.
Full presentation:
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