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Introduction & Market Context
Bavarian Nordic (CPH:CSE:BAVA) presented its Q3 2024 results on November 15, 2024, revealing a mixed performance across its business segments. The Danish vaccine manufacturer reported quarterly revenue of 1,363 million DKK, a slight 1% decrease from the same period last year, while EBITDA reached 250 million DKK, down from 380 million DKK in Q3 2023.
The company’s stock has shown resilience despite the mixed results, with fundamentals data showing the share price at 155.1 DKK as of May 8, 2025, up 0.39% on the day. The stock has traded in a fifty-two-week range of 123.3 to 300 DKK, indicating significant volatility over the past year.
Quarterly Performance Highlights
Bavarian Nordic’s Q3 2024 financial performance was characterized by strong growth in its Travel Health segment, which helped offset declines in Public Preparedness. For the first nine months of 2024, the company reported revenue of 3,622 million DKK, down 22% from 4,615 million DKK in the same period of 2023, while EBITDA fell to 692 million DKK from 1,552 million DKK.
As shown in the following financial highlights chart, the company has maintained its growth trajectory despite quarterly fluctuations:
The company maintained its full-year 2024 guidance, projecting revenue between 5,400-5,800 million DKK and EBITDA of 1,450-1,700 million DKK. This guidance appears achievable based on performance through Q3, with the company noting that 9M revenue and EBITDA were in line with expectations despite some production challenges.
Segment Performance Analysis
The Travel Health segment emerged as a bright spot in Bavarian Nordic’s portfolio, with strong growth across key products. Rabies vaccine sales increased 22% in Q3, driven by robust demand in the US and Germany, where market shares reached 79% and 95%, respectively. TBE (tick-borne encephalitis) vaccine sales jumped 36%, contributing to the segment’s overall 21% growth compared to Q3 2023.
The quarterly progression of Travel Health revenues demonstrates consistent growth over the past two years:
In contrast, the Public Preparedness segment saw a 26% decline in Q3 and a 46% drop for the first nine months of 2024. However, the company secured significant new contracts that should bolster future performance, including multi-year orders worth over USD 220 million from the US government and additional mpox vaccine orders from European agencies and UNICEF.
The commercial performance breakdown reveals the contrasting trajectories of these segments:
Strategic Initiatives and Pipeline
Bavarian Nordic continues to expand its Public Preparedness business through new contracts and market entries. The company launched JYNNEOS in the private market in the US and Germany, received EMA approval for adolescents, and secured WHO prequalification for its MVA-BN vaccine.
The following chart illustrates the company’s public preparedness revenue trajectory and future projections:
A key strategic focus is the company’s chikungunya vaccine candidate, which is under regulatory review with both the EMA and FDA. The FDA granted priority review status with a PDUFA date of February 14, 2025, potentially positioning Bavarian Nordic to launch the first adolescent chikungunya vaccine in both the US and Europe in H1 2025.
The company is also strengthening its global mpox preparedness efforts through intensified collaborations with international health organizations:
Financial Position and Outlook
Bavarian Nordic maintains a strong financial position with net cash of 1,858 million DKK as of Q3 2024, up from 1,491 million DKK in 2023. Operating cash flow improved significantly to 994 million DKK for the first nine months of 2024, compared to 534 million DKK in the same period of 2023.
The detailed financial breakdown shows performance across key metrics:
Looking ahead, the company has already secured approximately 2,400 million DKK in revenue for 2025 from mpox/smallpox orders, providing a solid foundation for future growth. The 2024 guidance breakdown shows the expected contribution from each business segment:
Recent earnings data from Q4 2024 confirms that Bavarian Nordic achieved its financial targets, with full-year revenue reaching 5.7 billion DKK and an EBITDA margin of 28%, positioning the company at the upper end of its guidance range. The successful approval of the chikungunya vaccine in both the US and EU, as mentioned in recent earnings, validates the company’s pipeline development strategy outlined in the Q3 presentation.
While challenges remain, including production issues that affected gross margins in early 2024, Bavarian Nordic’s diversified portfolio and strategic focus on high-growth vaccine markets position the company for continued expansion in 2025 and beyond.
Full presentation:
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