BlueScope shares hold underperform; target raised on market concern

Published 19/08/2024, 15:46
BlueScope shares hold underperform; target raised on market concern

On Monday, BlueScope Steel (OTC:BLSFY) Limited (BSL:AU) (OTC: BLSFY) saw an adjustment in its stock outlook. Jefferies, a global investment firm, raised its price target for the company's shares to AUD18.03, up from the previous AUD17.80. Despite this increase, the firm maintained its Underperform rating on the stock.

The adjustment comes amid skepticism about the company's position in the market cycle. According to Jefferies, there is no fundamental data from the steel or construction markets to support the notion that BlueScope Steel is at the bottom of the cycle. The firm's analysis suggests that the current valuation of BlueScope Steel should be around AUD20 per share, which they note offers limited potential for stock price growth.

The analyst's statement highlighted concerns about the near-term prospects for BlueScope Steel investors. With expectations for a period of lower earnings and increased capital expenditures, the firm suggests that the current share price may not provide significant upside.

The price target increase to AUD18.03 reflects a nuanced view of BlueScope Steel's financial health and market position. While the target is higher than the previous one, the Underperform rating indicates that Jefferies remains cautious about the stock's performance potential in the current economic environment.

Investors in BlueScope Steel are thus presented with a conservative outlook from Jefferies, with a price target that implies a restrained view of the company's earnings re-rating and stock appreciation possibilities. The firm's commentary underscores the challenges facing investors as they navigate a period marked by anticipated lower earnings and rising capital expenditures for the steel producer.

In other recent news, Bluescope Steel Ltd. has seen its stock rating downgraded from a "Hold" to an "Underperform" by Jefferies due to concerns over weakening construction markets in Australia and New Zealand. This shift is further compounded by weak marked-to-market spreads in North America and Asia. The firm has also adjusted the price target for Bluescope Steel to AUD17.80 from AUD21.63.

Jefferies has indicated that the earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) guidance of $400-450 million for the first half of 2025 appears achievable, but there is a 30% risk of a downgrade to the consensus EBIT for the full year 2025. The current trading price of Bluescope Steel is close to its long-term mid-cycle enterprise value to EBIT (EV/EBIT) multiple based on the FY25 consensus estimates.

Jefferies has expressed concerns that the present market conditions are likely to impact Bluescope Steel's earnings negatively. With the revised price target from Jefferies, there is an implied downside to the current share price based on these metrics. These are recent developments that investors are closely monitoring.

InvestingPro Insights

Recent data from InvestingPro offers additional context to the financial health and market position of BlueScope Steel Limited (BSL:AU) (OTC: BLSFY). Notably, the company's management has been actively buying back shares, which is often seen as a sign of confidence in the company's future performance.

Moreover, BlueScope Steel holds more cash than debt on its balance sheet, providing financial stability and flexibility. The company's valuation implies a strong free cash flow yield, suggesting that the stock may be undervalued based on its cash-generating ability.

Key metrics from InvestingPro show a market capitalization of $5.83 billion USD and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.6, which adjusts to 10.03 when looking at the last twelve months as of Q2 2024. This P/E ratio indicates that the stock could be reasonably valued relative to its earnings.

Furthermore, the dividend yield as of the end of February 2024 stands at an attractive 3.35%, which is complemented by a notable dividend growth of 41.02% over the last twelve months as of Q2 2024. These figures suggest that BlueScope Steel could be a compelling choice for dividend-seeking investors.

For those interested in further insights, InvestingPro offers additional tips on the stock's performance and financial health. Among these, analysts predict the company will be profitable this year, and it has been profitable over the last twelve months. For investors looking to dive deeper, more InvestingPro Tips can be found at https://www.investing.com/pro/BLSFY, providing a comprehensive analysis of BlueScope Steel's investment potential.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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