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BMO maintains Progressive's Outperform rating, $273 target

EditorLina Guerrero
Published 04/11/2024, 21:08
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On Monday, BMO Capital Markets sustained its positive stance on Progressive Corp. (NYSE: NYSE:PGR), reiterating an Outperform rating with a $273.00 price target. The endorsement follows an assessment of several growth indicators and competitive factors influencing the insurer's performance.

The firm's analyst adjusted the earnings per share (EPS) estimates for Progressive upward, citing reduced catastrophe losses and robust policy count growth. Specifically, the fourth-quarter catastrophe losses were lower than expected, and policy count growth in the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025 is now projected to be more robust, at +4.7% and +5.4% respectively, up from previous forecasts of +4.0% and +5.0%.

These revised estimates outpace the consensus, which anticipates growth rates of +3.8% and +4.1% for the same periods. The analyst highlighted Progressive's significant year-over-year increase in new applications, which surged by 90%, and a substantial increase in advertising expenditures, approximately 400% higher than the previous year.

The competitive landscape was also noted as a tailwind for Progressive, with the company's pricing strategies being less aggressive (approximately less than 1% increase) compared to its peers, who have been raising rates to a higher single-digit percentage. Furthermore, the analysis referenced GEICO's third-quarter results, suggesting that the competitor has not yet fully ramped up its market offensive strategies.

Progressive Corp.'s stock performance and outlook are closely watched by investors, as the company continues to navigate the competitive insurance industry landscape.

In other recent news, Progressive Corp reported robust third-quarter earnings, exceeding expectations with a net income of $2.33 billion. This surge was largely driven by a 25% increase in net premiums to $19.46 billion and a 15% year-over-year increase in personal insurance policies reaching 29.3 million. However, the company also incurred $563 million in catastrophe losses due to Hurricane Helena and anticipates nearly $325 million in catastrophe losses due to Hurricane Milton.

Goldman Sachs maintained its Neutral rating on Progressive with a steady price target of $292.00, while CFRA and BofA Securities increased their price targets citing strong growth and improved underwriting results. Meanwhile, Wells Fargo reiterated its Overweight rating, raising the price target to $297, and TD Cowen held steady with a Hold rating and a price target of $197.

InvestingPro Insights

Progressive Corp.'s strong market position and financial performance are further supported by recent data from InvestingPro. The company's market capitalization stands at an impressive $141.65 billion, reflecting its significant presence in the insurance industry. Progressive's revenue growth has been robust, with a 22.67% increase over the last twelve months as of Q3 2024, reaching $71.96 billion. This aligns with BMO Capital Markets' positive outlook on the company's policy count growth.

InvestingPro Tips highlight Progressive's strength as a "prominent player in the Insurance industry" and its "high return over the last year," which corroborates the analyst's optimistic stance. The company's P/E ratio of 17.55 suggests a reasonable valuation considering its growth prospects. Additionally, Progressive has maintained dividend payments for 15 consecutive years, indicating financial stability and commitment to shareholder returns.

For investors seeking a deeper understanding of Progressive's financial health and growth potential, InvestingPro offers 11 additional tips, providing a comprehensive analysis to inform investment decisions.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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