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On Monday, Citi maintained its Neutral rating on MPLX LP (NYSE:MPLX), with a steady price target of $43.00. The firm's updated model anticipates third-quarter 2024 EBITDA to be $1.675 billion, aligning closely with the Street's average estimate of $1.677 billion.
The focus for this quarter is expected to be on capital returns, as MPLX is likely to announce its annual distribution increase ahead of earnings, with a 10% rise being the baseline expectation. This projection is consistent with the increases seen in the previous two years. The potential for a higher increase is supported by the company's approximately 1.5 times coverage and significant excess free cash flow.
MPLX is also anticipated to continue its share buyback program, with an assumption of an additional $75 million in repurchases for the third quarter of 2024. The third quarter EBITDA is expected to receive a boost from several factors, including the ramp-up of recently completed processing capacities at Preakness II and Harmon Creek II, mid-year FERC tariff escalators, a 20% increase in interest in BANGL, and the initial volume increase from the ADCC pipeline.
However, certain factors may partially offset these positive tailwinds. These include a lower guided utilization rate from MPC, commodity headwinds estimated to be less than $5 million, and a reduced stake in the Whistler project. These elements are taken into consideration in the firm's analysis and expectations for MPLX's upcoming financial performance.
In other recent news, Goldman Sachs upheld its Buy rating on MPLX LP, remaining hopeful about the company's capital returns. This decision aligns with the firm's sustained confidence in MPLX's financial outlook, which was reinforced by a recent visit to the company's headquarters. Goldman Sachs' analysis supports MPLX's mid-single-digit EBITDA growth target, first introduced in its fourth-quarter 2022 earnings report.
Despite conservative estimates predicting a 2-3% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), MPLX has consistently met its EBITDA growth pace. Goldman Sachs believes MPLX can achieve the lower end of its EBITDA growth target, around 4%, through base growth and current capital expenditures of about $1 billion per year. To reach higher growth levels, MPLX may need to increase spending, potentially exceeding $2 billion per year, combining organic and inorganic investments.
InvestingPro Insights
MPLX LP's financial metrics and recent performance align well with Citi's Neutral rating and the focus on capital returns. According to InvestingPro data, MPLX boasts a robust dividend yield of 7.61% and has maintained dividend payments for 12 consecutive years. This supports the expectation of a potential 10% distribution increase, as mentioned in the article.
The company's strong financial position is further evidenced by its impressive profit margins, with a gross profit margin of 56.47% and an operating income margin of 40.06% for the last twelve months as of Q2 2024. These figures suggest that MPLX has the financial flexibility to support both dividend increases and share buybacks.
InvestingPro Tips highlight that MPLX pays a significant dividend to shareholders and has shown strong returns over the last five years. This aligns with the article's focus on capital returns and the company's history of distribution increases. Additionally, the stock is trading near its 52-week high, which could be indicative of investor confidence in the company's performance and capital return strategy.
For readers interested in a deeper analysis, InvestingPro offers 5 additional tips that could provide further insights into MPLX's financial health and market position.
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