Citi optimistic on BYD stock with high-end sales forecast

Published 28/04/2025, 10:22
Citi optimistic on BYD stock with high-end sales forecast

Investing.com -- Citi provided a positive outlook for BYD (SZ:002594)’s high-end vehicle sales, projecting significant growth by 2025.

Analysts from Citi anticipate that the sales volume of BYD’s premium brands Denza, Fangchengbao, and Yangwang will reach approximately 400,000 units in 2025, almost doubling from an estimated figure of less than 200,000 units in 2024. Denza is expected to contribute around 200,000 units to the total, with Fangchengbao (excluding Leopard 3) accounting for 150,000 to 200,000 units.

At the recent Shanghai Auto Show, BYD unveiled five new models within its Ocean network for the mass market. Additionally, the company introduced several premium models, including the Denza N9, Leopard 3/5/8, and Yangwang U7, signaling a strategic expansion into the premium vehicle segment.

Citi analysts also addressed a potential price reduction in the second quarter of 2024, attributing it to high inventory levels and destocking pressures. They suggest that BYD is likely to adopt a cautious approach, adjusting prices flexibly while focusing on technology competitiveness over price-based competition.

In terms of Advanced Driver-Assistance Systems (ADAS), BYD is concentrating on driver safety and technological reliability rather than aggressive marketing strategies. Continuous development of ADAS is expected to enhance the company’s product competitiveness through technological advancements.

Regarding capital expenditures (Capex), Citi forecasts a seasonal increase in the first quarter of 2025, similar to the pattern observed between the fourth quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024. Analysts predict a sequential decrease in the second quarter of 2025, with the full-year Capex for 2025 expected to remain in line with 2024 levels.

Citi’s report also highlighted BYD’s international market prospects, particularly emphasizing expected volume growth in South America within the current year and predicting that export volume growth in the European Union in 2025 will be driven by the hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) segments.

For gross profit margin (GPM), Citi estimates that provisions weighed down GPM by approximately 2 percentage points in the fiscal year 2024 and around 1 percentage point in the first quarter of 2025. However, they expect the second quarter of 2025 to show a year-over-year GPM that is roughly flat.

In terms of performance, BYD’s total wholesale volume for the first quarter of 2025 was reported at approximately 1 million units, with an export volume of 200,000 units. The GPM for the first quarter of 2025 was 20.1%, compared to 21.9% in the same period the previous year.

The lower GPM is partly attributed to a higher base effect in the first quarter of 2024, due to a greater mix of export volume and less dilution at the average selling price level, following the rollout of Honor editions.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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