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On Monday, Bernstein SocGen Group adjusted its price target on shares of CrowdStrike Holdings (NASDAQ:CRWD), a leader in cloud-delivered endpoint and cloud workload protection, reducing it to $315.00 from the previous $381.00. Despite the lowered target, the firm has maintained its Outperform rating on the stock.
The adjustment comes amidst considerations of various potential impacts on CrowdStrike's valuation. The analysis included scenarios ranging from a moderate one-year impact with limited long-term effects, to a more significant two-year impact with a small longer-term influence.
The current trading price, according to the firm, seems peculiar as it suggests a more substantial decrease in the company's long-term value, a view the firm finds less likely.
The firm believes that the reality of CrowdStrike's situation may not be as dire as implied by the stock's current trading price. It points out that the year-over-year revenue growth from existing customers, which constitutes about 60% of the company's mix, is unlikely to face high churn rates. The value of platform expansion for customers who remain with CrowdStrike is also considered to be relatively unharmed.
However, the firm acknowledges that the approximately 40% year-over-year growth from new customers could be at greater risk, although this is expected to be a short-term issue. There have been observations that new vendors are entering the consideration set late in the process, potentially extending deal cycles. It's too early to determine if this will lead to an increased loss rate, but cybersecurity practitioners consulted by the firm are doubtful of a significant impact.
"Many historical examples had little impact, and the worst cases seemed to rebound within 1 year," said the analysts.
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