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Deutsche Bank cautious on Peloton stock, sees need for sustainable growth strategy

EditorEmilio Ghigini
Published 05/11/2024, 11:58
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On Tuesday, Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) maintained its Hold rating on Peloton Interactive (NASDAQ:PTON) stock while adjusting the price target to $6.20.

The firm's analysis suggests that while Peloton is experiencing an acceleration in revenue and gross add declines for FY25, with churn rates increasing, the company's focus on profitability is showing strong traction. The updated financial model now forecasts a slightly less severe revenue decline of approximately 9%, compared to the previous estimate of around 10%.

The revised price target reflects an improved outlook for the company's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) for FY25. Deutsche Bank has increased its EBITDA projection by 25% to approximately $279 million. This adjustment is based on Peloton's raised full-year outlook and its effectiveness in driving profitability.

Despite the increase in the EBITDA estimate and the resulting higher price target, Deutsche Bank reiterated its Hold rating on Peloton's shares. The firm emphasizes the need for Peloton to demonstrate a sustainable path to growth in both subscribers and revenue. According to the analysis, for Peloton's stock to trade beyond the current low teens multiple on 2025 earnings, the company must show potential for consistent growth.

The report also highlights the impact of Peloton's strategic initiatives, such as Secondary Market sales and Fitness as a Service (FAAS), on the subscriber mix and churn rates. Additionally, it notes the effect of price increases on the bike program. Despite these challenges, the raised full-year outlook and strong profitability have influenced Deutsche Bank's updated price target for Peloton.

In other recent news, Peloton Interactive has seen a series of significant developments. The company's strategic shift towards profitability has been acknowledged by BMO Capital Markets, which upgraded its stock target from $6.50 to $8.50, while maintaining its Market Perform rating.

Peloton's focus on cost reduction led to an 18% increase in its FY25 EBITDA guidance, a move also recognized by Macquarie and Telsey Advisory Group, which both raised their respective stock targets for the company.

Peloton's first-quarter financial results revealed $13 million in GAAP operating income, $11 million in free cash flow, and $116 million in adjusted EBITDA. The company's connected fitness subscription base now includes over 6 million members, generating $1.7 billion in annualized subscription revenue at a 68% gross margin.

The company has also seen changes in leadership, with the appointment of Peter Stern (AS:PBHP) as CEO, set to take effect in January. In addition to these internal changes, Peloton has launched a marketing campaign targeting millennial males, featuring football stars T.J. and J.J. Watt, and announced plans for international expansion, particularly in Germany. These recent developments reflect Peloton's ongoing efforts to adapt to market demands and internal changes.

InvestingPro Insights

Recent data from InvestingPro sheds additional light on Peloton's financial position and market performance. The company's market capitalization stands at $2.86 billion, reflecting investor sentiment amidst its ongoing strategic shifts. Peloton's revenue for the last twelve months as of Q1 2023 was $2.69 billion, with a gross profit margin of 45.53%, indicating the company's ability to maintain healthy margins despite challenges.

An InvestingPro Tip highlights that Peloton's stock price has shown strong momentum, with a 59.79% return over the past month and an impressive 143.83% return over the last three months. This aligns with Deutsche Bank's revised outlook and the market's reaction to Peloton's profitability focus.

Another InvestingPro Tip notes that analysts have revised their earnings expectations upward for Peloton, which corresponds with Deutsche Bank's increased EBITDA projections. This positive sentiment is further supported by the InvestingPro Fair Value estimate of $7.67, suggesting potential upside from the current price levels.

For investors seeking a more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers additional tips and insights that could provide valuable context for Peloton's financial health and future prospects.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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