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Introduction & Market Context
ERG, a leading European renewable energy producer, presented its first quarter 2025 results on May 15, revealing the continued impact of unfavorable wind conditions across Europe while maintaining its strategic growth initiatives. The company’s stock traded down 1.05% at €18.18 following the presentation.
The most significant challenge highlighted was an ongoing wind drought affecting multiple European markets since October 2024. This meteorological phenomenon substantially impacted the company’s financial performance despite efforts to expand capacity and diversify geographically.
As shown in the following chart detailing the wind drought’s impact across Europe:
Wind production in Italy decreased by 24% in Q1 2025 compared to the same period last year, dropping from 7,512 GWh to 5,698 GWh. The company cited reports from multiple sources, including the UK Met Office and BDEW, which noted a 31% decrease in onshore wind generation in Germany during the period.
Quarterly Performance Highlights
ERG reported EBITDA of €145 million for Q1 2025, down 12.1% from €165 million in Q1 2024, with EBITDA margin declining from 76% to 72%. Net profit fell more significantly, dropping 37.2% to €49 million from €78 million in the prior-year period.
The following chart summarizes ERG’s key financial metrics for the quarter:
Despite the challenging wind conditions, ERG’s total energy production increased slightly to 1,976 GWh in Q1 2025 from 1,947 GWh in Q1 2024. This modest growth was achieved through the contribution of new assets, which helped offset the poor wind generation. The company’s energy mix showed a slight shift, with wind representing 91% of production (down from 93%) and solar increasing to 9% (up from 7%).
The geographic breakdown of production reveals interesting shifts, as illustrated in this production snapshot:
A notable development was the contribution from US operations, which added 285 GWh in Q1 2025 compared to zero in the prior year, reflecting ERG’s recent expansion into the American market. This aligns with the company’s strategic entry into the US market mentioned in its Q4 2024 earnings report.
EBITDA by region showed declines across several key markets:
Italy remained the largest contributor to EBITDA at €86 million (down from €101 million), followed by France at €18 million (down from €22 million) and Germany at €7 million (down from €13 million).
Strategic Initiatives
Despite financial headwinds, ERG continued to execute its growth strategy, adding 71MW of new capacity through a combination of M&A, repowering, and greenfield development. The company also secured three Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) for approximately 300GWh/year in Italy and the UK for wind assets reaching the end of their incentive periods.
Capital expenditures and M&A investments totaled €115 million in Q1 2025, down from €154 million in Q1 2024, with a shift in geographic focus from France to Germany:
The company’s financial position remained solid, with Fitch affirming ERG’s BBB- rating with a Stable outlook. The company’s net financial position stood at €1,854 million as of March 31, 2025, a slight increase from €1,793 million at the end of 2024.
The cash flow statement reveals the main factors affecting the company’s financial position during the quarter:
Notably, working capital changes and other items consumed €65 million, while the company allocated €12 million to share buybacks, demonstrating its commitment to shareholder returns alongside its approved €1 per share dividend.
Forward-Looking Statements
Despite the challenging start to the year, ERG maintained its full-year 2025 guidance:
The company projects EBITDA between €540-600 million for the full year, implying a significant improvement in the remaining quarters compared to the €145 million achieved in Q1. Capital expenditures are expected to range from €190-240 million, with the adjusted net financial position forecast between €1,850-1,950 million.
This guidance aligns with statements made during the Q4 2024 earnings call, where CEO Paolo Merli targeted EBITDA of over €600 million by 2026 and emphasized a "value over volume approach." The maintained guidance suggests management’s confidence in improved wind conditions for the remainder of 2025 or the ability to offset continued challenges through new capacity additions and operational efficiencies.
As ERG navigates the ongoing wind drought while continuing its strategic expansion, investors will be watching closely to see if weather patterns normalize and allow the company to achieve its ambitious full-year targets.
Full presentation:
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