Evercore ISI keeps Apple stock target, offsets China risk with growth in developing markets

Published 25/09/2024, 22:12
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On Wednesday, Evercore ISI maintained its positive stance on Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), keeping an Outperform rating and a $250.00 price target on the tech giant's shares. The firm's analysis highlighted a mixed picture in the Chinese market, where smartphone shipments rose by 26.7% year-over-year in August, a deceleration from the 30.4% growth observed in the previous month. Apple, specifically, saw a 12.9% year-over-year decline in shipments, a reversal from growth in July and June.

Despite the recent dip, Evercore ISI advises caution in interpreting these figures, citing past discrepancies between shipment data and Apple's reported revenue. For instance, a significant drop in shipments during the March quarter did not correlate with Apple's reported stable iPhone revenue in China. Similarly, an increase in shipments in the June quarter was met with a reported decline in revenue from the region.

The analysis suggests that the risk in China may be concentrated at the lower end of Apple's product range, including the base iPhone and iPhone SE models. However, the higher-end iPhone Pro and Pro Max models appear to be holding their ground amidst increased competition. The report also notes Huawei's continued struggles with chip yields, potentially limiting their market share gains.

Evercore ISI's iPhone Delivery Tracker indicates mixed lead times for various models, with faster lead times for the iPhone 16, 16 Plus, and Pro Max, while the Pro model saw longer lead times. The CAICT data includes shipments by domestic and multinational companies, with Apple representing over 90% of multinational shipments, providing a reasonable proxy for the company's performance.

In conclusion, Evercore ISI views the fluctuation in iPhone shipment data as not particularly surprising following a 34% growth in the June quarter. The firm believes that concerns over Apple's performance in China are overstated and that potential losses in market share there could be compensated by growth in developing markets, hence maintaining the Outperform rating and $250 price target.

In other recent news, Apple Inc. has been the subject of various analyst reviews following the launch of the iPhone 16. BofA Securities and Goldman Sachs reaffirmed their positive outlook on Apple, maintaining their Buy ratings with price targets of $256 and $276 respectively. They attributed this to shortened delivery lead times for the new model and potential margin tailwinds. However, Barclays reiterated its underweight rating, pointing to a softer demand for the new iPhone model.

These recent developments also saw Evercore ISI, Morgan Stanley, and CFRA maintaining their positive ratings on Apple's shares, with Evercore ISI and Morgan Stanley setting price targets of $250 and $273 respectively. Despite concerns about shorter pre-order lead times and lower initial orders for the new iPhone 16 Pro devices, CFRA maintained its Buy rating on Apple shares (NASDAQ:AAPL), with a $260.00 price target.

Meanwhile, Huawei Technologies launched the Mate XT, a high-end smartphone with a tri-fold design. Despite receiving 6.5 million pre-orders, production yield issues might limit the initial production to 500,000 units. Regulatory actions have also been initiated against Apple by the European Commission to ensure compliance with the Digital Markets Act, focusing on iOS and iPadOS systems' interoperability with smartwatches, headphones, and other internet-connected devices.


InvestingPro Insights


According to InvestingPro data, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) boasts a robust market capitalization of $3.42 trillion, reflecting its significant presence in the global market. The company's P/E ratio stands at 33.98, suggesting a high earnings multiple which aligns with Evercore ISI's analysis of Apple trading at a premium. Despite a modest revenue growth of 0.43% over the last twelve months as of Q1 2023, Apple has demonstrated a strong gross profit margin of 45.96%, underscoring its ability to maintain profitability.

InvestingPro Tips highlight Apple's consistency in raising its dividend, with a track record of 12 consecutive years, which is indicative of the company's financial health and commitment to shareholder returns. Furthermore, Apple's stock is noted for its low price volatility, providing investors with a relatively stable investment option in the technology sector. For those looking to delve deeper into Apple's financial metrics and strategic positioning, InvestingPro offers an additional 16 tips on its platform.

The insights provided by InvestingPro data and tips offer a valuable perspective for investors considering Apple's stock. With the company trading near its 52-week high and maintaining a strong return over the last decade, Apple's financials appear to support Evercore ISI's positive outlook and $250 price target.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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