JFrog stock rises as Cantor Fitzgerald maintains Overweight rating after strong Q2
Exact Sciences Corporation (NASDAQ:EXAS) presented its first-quarter 2025 earnings results on May 1, showcasing accelerated revenue growth, significant profitability improvements, and an expanded product pipeline. The cancer diagnostics leader raised its full-year guidance across all key metrics, driving investor optimism despite an earnings per share miss.
Introduction & Market Context
Exact Sciences shares surged 3.33% during regular trading hours and jumped an additional 6.31% in aftermarket trading following the earnings release. The company’s stock, which has traded between $39.97 and $72.83 over the past 52 weeks, reached $50.14 in extended trading, reflecting investor confidence in the company’s growth trajectory and improving financial metrics.
The company positions itself as a global leader in advanced cancer diagnostics, with a mission to "help eradicate cancer by preventing it, detecting it earlier, and guiding personalized treatment." With 7,000+ global team members and approximately 200,000 ordering providers each quarter, Exact Sciences is leveraging its scale to drive both revenue growth and operational efficiencies.
As shown in the following overview of the company’s footprint, impact, and capabilities:
Quarterly Performance Highlights
Exact Sciences reported total revenue of $707 million for Q1 2025, representing 11% year-over-year growth. The company’s core business segments both delivered positive results, with Screening revenue (primarily from Cologuard) increasing 14% to $540 million and Precision Oncology core revenue growing 4% to $167 million.
The following chart illustrates the company’s revenue growth across segments:
The company’s commercial reach continues to expand, with customer engagement up approximately 30% year-over-year and more than 190,000 ordering providers in Q1 2025, representing nearly 10% growth from the prior year. This expanding provider base suggests continued momentum for Exact Sciences’ diagnostic tests.
Financial Analysis and Profitability Improvements
While revenue growth remained strong, Exact Sciences made even more significant strides in profitability metrics. Adjusted EBITDA increased 61% year-over-year to $63 million, with margins expanding from 6% to 9% (a 280 basis point improvement). Perhaps most notably, the company achieved breakeven free cash flow, a substantial $120 million improvement from the negative $120 million reported in Q1 2024.
The following chart highlights these profitability improvements:
Despite these positive trends, Exact Sciences reported a loss of $0.54 per share, which missed analyst expectations of a $0.33 loss. This discrepancy suggests the company continues to invest heavily in research and development and commercial infrastructure to support its ambitious growth plans.
Updated 2025 Guidance
Based on strong Q1 performance and positive commercial trends, Exact Sciences raised its full-year 2025 guidance across all key metrics. Total (EPA:TTEF) revenue guidance increased to $3.070-3.120 billion (up $40 million at the midpoint), with the Screening segment expected to contribute $2.390-2.425 billion (up $38 million at the midpoint).
The company also raised its adjusted EBITDA guidance to $425-455 million, representing a $15 million increase at the midpoint. This revised outlook suggests continued confidence in both top-line growth and margin expansion.
The following table details the updated guidance compared to prior projections:
Product Pipeline and Innovation
Exact Sciences highlighted several innovative products that are expected to drive future growth. Cologuard Plus™ aims to revolutionize colorectal cancer screening with improved performance, Medicare coverage, and inclusion in quality measures. The company’s marketing strategy emphasizes "Cologuard first, colonoscopy as needed," positioning the non-invasive test as the preferred initial screening option.
The following slide outlines the key benefits of Cologuard Plus™:
Another promising product is Oncodetect™, which predicts and detects cancer relapses significantly earlier than the standard of care. According to company data, a positive Oncodetect result indicates a patient is approximately 50 times more likely to experience cancer recurrence, and the test can detect relapse more than two years sooner than current methods.
The following slide details Oncodetect’s capabilities:
Perhaps most ambitious is the company’s Cancerguard™ program, which aims to screen for multiple cancer types through a single blood draw. With only 14% of cancers currently found through recommended screening, Exact Sciences believes Cancerguard™ combined with standard of care could reduce cancer mortality by 17%. The company has published data showing 67% sensitivity for the six deadliest cancers and plans to launch a laboratory developed test (LDT) in the second half of 2025.
The following slide outlines the Cancerguard™ program:
Forward-Looking Statements
CEO Kevin Conroy expressed optimism about the company’s market position during the earnings call, noting that "We’re nearing the point that more people will opt for Cologuard in a year than colonoscopy." He also highlighted the long-term potential of the company’s product pipeline, stating, "It’s an exciting time at Exact, and I think if you look out over the next three or four years, here’s what the impact is going to be. We’re gonna get more people screened."
While Exact Sciences is not yet profitable on a GAAP basis, analysts project the company will achieve profitability this year, with an EPS forecast of $0.20 for FY2025. The significant improvements in adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow suggest the company is making substantial progress toward sustainable profitability while continuing to invest in growth initiatives.
As the company approaches cash flow positivity, management indicated during the Q&A session that they are evaluating capital allocation strategies to maximize shareholder value while supporting the launch of new products that could drive the next phase of growth.
Full presentation:
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